Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

28 Aug 2009

Help with #4 pick

Non PPR, 12 team league.

I have the #4 pick and I need to prepare for the scenario in which Peterson, MJD, and Forte go in the top 3 (I will take any of these guys if they are available).

My 4 options and a quick analysis:

Turner: The consensus choice, but in many ways he was very pedestrian in terms of performance last year, but his overall numbers were great obviously because of his opportunities in general and specifically his red-zone touches. We have all heard about the 370-thing, but he is one of those guys that KUBIAK, which measures quality, has trouble with in terms of fantasy play. A guy can be average, but still be a great back.

Jackson: Has always been productive and St. Louis would seemingly have to improve a bit. Even though I am non-PPR, his receiving yards tend to be strong and there and there are no threats for decreased PT. The injury risk is big here.

Williams: A stud last year in every way, shape, and form. Initially, he was not an option for me here due to the Stewart threat. However, reports from Carolina indicated that Stewart may not be the threat to his carries that most perceived and he is banged up again.

Tomlinson: Rising fast on most everyone's cheat sheets thanks to a lot of positive vibe coming out of camp. Reports are that he has a lot left in the tank, but is that still true come week 8 or 9?

So, what think you?

Posted by: badgermaniac on 28 Aug 2009

4 replies , Last at 28 Aug 2009, 6:05pm by badgermaniac

Re: Help with #4 pick
by johnkorean :: Fri, 08/28/2009 - 12:46pm

Even though it's not a PPR league, I much prefer having RBs that play a part in the passing game. That way, if the defense completely stuffs the run, at least your RB can pick up receiving yardage.

Personally I'd go with either Jackson or Tomlinson. While the Curse of 370 doesn't really scare me from an analytical standpoint, the fact that Turner a. plays no role in the passing game and b. did NOTHING last year against decent defenses or on the road means I'm not taking him. Williams could be a great player again, but doesn't play as big a role in the passing game as Jackson or LT. Plus, most of his value was TDs; I don't see him scoring 20 again.

I would probably go LT over Jackson because I think San Diego has a more stable and potent offense.

Re: Help with #4 pick
by rdy4thefiesta :: Fri, 08/28/2009 - 1:14pm

I think it's very likely that someone at 2 or 3 will take Turner and you'll get Forte. If he's gone at 4, I'd take LT. That is if you aren't allowed to trade draft slots.

I had the #2 pick in a draft recently, and before the draft I asked the guy at 3 if he wanted to trade, and he said maybe. Then I told him that if he wanted Turner, he had to trade with me cause I like MJD and Turner about equally, but I was going to take Turner at 2 (I lied). He traded with me, took Turner, and I got MJD and a better second round pick. If that scenario comes up, figure out who you think wants Turner and trade back in the first round in exchange for better picks in later rounds.

Re: Help with #4 pick
by roguerouge :: Fri, 08/28/2009 - 5:41pm

I'd take Chris Johnson, who rotoworld has as essentially equivalent to Jackson and Turner. If you have 14 teams or more, however, the smart play is picking Peyton or Tom, as that's the point where their value over replacement level tops that set of RBs.

Not thrilled
by badgermaniac :: Fri, 08/28/2009 - 6:05pm

...with RW analysis on many players. Too much risk with Johnson...risky to repeat on his long runs, presence of Lendale, possible improved passing game, etc. to take at #4.

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