Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

28 Jul 2014

Help fine tuning draft

I'm in a 10 man PPR, 4 pts for QB TD. Roster is QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/FLEX(RB/WR/TE) With that said. In all of my mock drafts with the #2 pick I end up getting.

Forte
Bernard
Brown

Usually in that order. Whenever I take Brown with my 2nd pick, Bernard isn't there, but when I take Bernard, Brown is always there, even though he ranks higher in my KUBIAK settings.

Now the question is, KUBIAK has Bree's ranked higher than both, and sometimes he's availabe, sometimes he's not. The question is, do I take him with my 2nd or 3rd pick, or wait till the 6th round to pick up Brady, Romo, or someone comparable? Lately I take all my RB's, WR's, TE, and flex spot before picking a QB. Fantasy mistake? Open to opinions.

Posted by: The_Dude on 28 Jul 2014

7 replies , Last at 20 Aug 2014, 9:52am by jabrch

1
Re: Help fine tuning draft
by jdhusker7 :: Thu, 07/31/2014 - 5:45pm

There is no chance I would take Brees with my 2nd pick and I really couldn't see myself taking him with my 3rd either in a 10 team league. I have been getting Kaepernick in the 9th round in 12 team mocks I've been doing on FFC (Fantasy Football Calculator), so there's also almost no chance I would take Brady or Romo in the 6th in a 10 team league either.

If you are going strictly by the KUBIAK then you might get different results. I only use the KUBIAK to augment my decision making, not as the end-all be-all.

2
Re: Help fine tuning draft
by bingo762 :: Mon, 08/11/2014 - 12:14pm

Forte 2? Not McCoy or Charles? I guess no biggie. Anywho, I generally wait on QB until 9th round. Also, as a rule of thumb, if you take a QB early, you should wait till later on a TE or vice versa.

3
Re: Help fine tuning draft
by The_Dude :: Mon, 08/11/2014 - 1:36pm

Have you generated a KUBIAK for a PPR league? It puts Forte and Megatron before both of those guys.

I get some of the logic. Charles has lost some crucial lineman and McCoy is definitely going to have points, especially PPR points vultured by Sproles.

My tough decision at the moment is going with Forte, or my instinct of taking Peterson under Norv Turner.

4
Re: Help fine tuning draft
by jdhusker7 :: Wed, 08/13/2014 - 10:35am

If you have already elminited JC and Shady and your decision is strictly Forte or Peterson in a PPR, Forte is the way to go

5
Re: Help fine tuning draft
by jabrch :: Tue, 08/19/2014 - 10:04am

Forte (and this is coming from a Bears fan) is at the age where I'm starting to worry about investing a top 5 pick in him. Now the Bears have no depth at RB, so you are OK unless he gets hurt...and he has been fairly durable most of his career...and Trestman's system is favorable to him - and to a PPR system... But we know that when RBs break down, they do it quickly... Will it happen this year? Next? Not sure... But worth considering... He also has always had trouble at the goal line - often a problem with the OL more than Forte - and the OL has been better after last year's draft...but still...last year was his career high with 9 rushing TDs (3 more receiving) and his career average TDs (Rush+Receive) is only 8.

He's a great NFL football player....but I'd struggle to take him in my top 3 RBs over AP, McCoy or Charles regardless of what Kubiak has projected for 2014.

Just one man's opinion...

6
Re: Help fine tuning draft
by kevinsweet78 :: Tue, 08/19/2014 - 6:46pm

I have the 12th pick and according to my Kubiak projections, the top 2 options are Ball from Denver or Demarius Thomas from Denver. I feel uneasy about picking two from the same team. I have V Jackson as a keeper so I have my #2/3 WR locked up and have been thinking of going RB WR with the first 2 picks.
Below is the picks and keepers

Keepers
Jordy Nelson GB WR
Ray Rice BAL RB
T.Y. Hilton WR IND
Philip Rivers QB SD
Vincent Jackson WR SD (ME)
K. Allen WR
Nick Foles Qb PHI
Daren Sproles
Ben Tate RB
Wallace WR—Miami
J. Bell—det RB
K. Moreno RB

Jamaal Charles, RB KC
LeSean McCoy, RB, Phil
Adrian Peterson, RB, Minn
Matt Forte, RB Chi
Marshawn Lynch Sea
Peyton Manning
Calvin Johnson—DET--WR
E. Lacy—RB—Green Bay
J. Graham-TE-New Orleans
A. RODGERS--QB
Demarco Murray-RB-DAL
Me?????

7
Re: Help fine tuning draft
by jabrch :: Wed, 08/20/2014 - 9:52am

Hard to say without knowing a bit more of your scoring system... But Drew Brees should be an option...last of the top tier QBs. How much better is Brees than QB#4 vs taking Ball compared to a later RB or WR?