Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

17 Jul 2012

Help with a Keeper League/Auction Draft decision

Hey Everyone. I'm looking for some advice in my fantasy draft. I play in a 12 team league and we do an auction draft ($200) with 2 keepers. For the Keepers we pay whatever we paid for them the year previous (which is great when you throw $1 or $2 down on a rookie with your last few bench spots). Our league isn't ppr but we do 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST, 1 K.

For my keepers I have Brady for $33 (which is a steal if he puts up the numbers he did last year). My second keeper is the question. I'm torn between Roy Helu for $1, or Nate Washington for $1. The only reason I would keep Washington is with Britt's second surgery he may be their number 1? Maybe? But I am heavily leaning towards keeping Helu if he gets the clear as the number 1 runner in Washington.

My big question is with Helu for a buck do I splurge on a top 1 or 2 RB like Foster or Rice (probably for upwards of $60 in my league) and play them opposite Helu or do I go for 2 starting mid tier runners (around $25 each) and use Helu in a 3 man rotation?

Thanks for the help and I look forward to hearing from you guys.

Posted by: The_Bloodline on 17 Jul 2012

5 replies , Last at 19 Jul 2012, 2:49am by The_Bloodline

1
Re: Help with a Keeper League/Auction Draft decision
by J. Winn (not verified) :: Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:16pm

Between those two I would definitely go with Helu. It's much more difficult to find quality RBs than WRs, especially this year. He may only put up a few good games due to the presence of Evan Royster (who was actually more impressive last season than Helu) and Tim Hightower (who Shanahan loves for some reason).

Nate Washington on the other hand is unlikely to repeat his success from last year. Even if Britt misses some early games he'll likely be back later in the season. Not to mention the addition of Kendall Wright who has been blowing everybody way with his understanding of the playbook and route running, which are the two things rookie WRs usually struggle with. Not to mention that when Jake Locker starts he may not have the same propensity for passing to Washington that Hasselbeck has.

I love the price you're getting for Brady, I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes the year as the number one fantasy QB.

Just out of curiosity, would you mind sharing your other keeper options?

2
Re: Help with a Keeper League/Auction Draft decision
by J. Winn (not verified) :: Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:39pm

I forgot to address the second part of your question.

I would not be comfortable with Helu as my number two RB. There is just too much uncertainty. Of the two options you suggest I would go with the two mid-tier runners.

In the situation you detailed I PERSONALLY would draft a top tier runner. You could have someone like Ray Rice, Roy Helu, and Tom Brady for a total of under $100. You would still be able to afford drafting a cheaper second tier RB like a Shonn Greene (who I'm not particularly crazy about, but you get the idea) or Donald Brown to add some stability to your lineup. No need to spend too much on WRs this year with the depth and uncertainty at the position.

3
Re: Help with a Keeper League/Auction Draft decision
by The_Bloodline :: Wed, 07/18/2012 - 12:02am

Thanks a lot for the insight. It really helps me to know I'm not alone in the way I'm thinking right now.
As far as my other possible keepers go, here they are.
My other keeper options are
Frank Gore ($52)- I could get him way cheaper if I really want this season than last
Michael Crabtree ($2) - Not bad but I don't trust Alex Smith to give him the attempts
Percy Harvin ($10) - eh...
Antonio Gates ($8)
Lions D/ST ($2)
Adrian Peterson ($55)- don't trust an acl within 12 months
Desean Jackson ($14)
The rest of my team are traded on so I can't keep them for the draft...

I really think Helu for ($1) is my best option this season and looking forward. Assuming he gets the number one spot from Shanahan that is.

4
Re: Help with a Keeper League/Auction Draft decision
by J. Winn (not verified) :: Wed, 07/18/2012 - 10:36am

Other than Helu I'd say Percy Harvin is the only other legitimate choice. That being said if you really wanted Harvin you could still just keep Helu and buy Harvin again and it would be much cheaper than keeping Harvin and buying Helu.

It sucks that both of other two RBs are in for huge declines and could be gotten cheaper anyway.

Crabtree, Jackson, and Gates could all be gotten for similar prices anyway and I'm not particularly fond of any of those choice anyway.

After seeing all your choices, I definitely agree that Helu is your best bet. He's just not going to be a guy you can play every week.

5
Re: Help with a Keeper League/Auction Draft decision
by The_Bloodline :: Thu, 07/19/2012 - 2:49am

Ya I agree. Really sucks about A.P. and Gore for sure. Its a strange situation for me this year. I've never been in a spot where I'm keeping someone I don't expect to start. I just needed to make sure I wasn't crazy in thinking he is actually my best option to keep with brady.
As far as Harvin goes I'm from Wisconsin, and most of the guys I play with avoid vikings like the plague, so I could get him for pretty cheap if I really want to. I probably wont but if he's cheap and I need a receiver when he's put up he'll probably get some decent points.

Thanks for the input

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