Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

19 Aug 2012

Hold Outs

MJD, Mike Wallace not slipping in draft position?

Posted by: dellagala on 19 Aug 2012

5 replies , Last at 27 Aug 2012, 2:19pm by phatalbert03

Re: Hold Outs
by Zac :: Sun, 08/19/2012 - 9:23pm

Their stats are projected with the assumption that they will end up signing before missing any games.

Re: Hold Outs
by Tofino :: Tue, 08/21/2012 - 1:55pm

Yep, this is made pretty clear in the projections. It's quite important to not just use KUBIAK as an "I must draft the top guy each time it's my pick" spreadsheet. It's an awesome resource to be used in conjunction with your own research and draft-smarts.

Re: Hold Outs
by jrbdmb :: Tue, 08/21/2012 - 11:57am

Some point out anecdotal evidence that hold outs tend to underperform their projections even if they report prior to Week 1 (see Chris Johnson last year). Is this more of a truth or a myth?

Re: Hold Outs
by hans :: Mon, 08/27/2012 - 12:55am

This is a good question, I'd be interested in seeing some analysis on this.

Re: Hold Outs
by phatalbert03 :: Mon, 08/27/2012 - 2:19pm

The truth may be slightly unrelated. Players who hold out most likely had a big year the year before; thus, they will likely regress backwards the following year whether they hold out or not.

I guess this depends on what projections we are looking at, but outside of FO, a lot of projections don't show that regression back to the mean.

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