Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

11 Aug 2012

How Does It Work?

Hello, I'm a relative newcomer to FO. I've read up on DVOA and found multiple sources citing the legitimacy of your findings. Since purchasing KUBIAK 2012, I've fiddled with it for at least a few hours a day, excited to be armed with such an advanced tool for this year's Fantasy Drafts. However, I can't seem to find any literature on how KUBIAK actually works... about the science fueling it.

Is KUBIAK an anagram and am I the last person in the world to know what it stands for? Or, is Aaron a hardcore Texans fan?

How are the projections devised? By no means do I want you to give up the recipe to your secret sauce, but I am extremely interested in your process. How much of it is science? How much of it is opinion? How much of it is occult magic?

I realize now that this question is highly linked to my MattStaff question in another topic. Please feel free to disregard that one... this one's the more interesting one for KUBIAK-newbies like me.

Huge thanks in advance.

Posted by: Enzo on 11 Aug 2012

2 replies , Last at 12 Aug 2012, 1:24pm by Enzo

Re: How Does It Work?
by Zac :: Sun, 08/12/2012 - 2:15am

An anagram is when you rearrange the letters in a word to form a different word. The only word that is an anagram for KUBIAK is kabuki, the traditional Japanese theater.

But it's not an an acronym either, which is what I think you meant ;). I'll quote the Outsiders Glosary ( at http://footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary )

KUBIAK Projection System: Complicated system of statistical regressions used to project individual player statistics for fantasy football. Not an acronym; it was named after Houston head coach Gary Kubiak because he was a long time 80's backup, just like Bill Pecota, who gave his name to the player projection system over at Baseball Prospectus.

In regards to how they are calculated, I believe they use a player's previous statistics to try to calculate some sort of baseline talent for them, then there are adjustments made in various categories that have been shown to be predictive. For instance, I believe I recall that adjustments are made for teams that have a new head coach or a new offensive coordinator. There are adjustments for players leaving or joining a team. Offensive line continuity is factored in, as it seems the best offensive lines usually have some time to get used to one another. Then obviously you're going to have strength of schedule adjustments. There is some regression to the mean for players who were particularly lucky (or unlucky) in an area which has been shown to be mostly random. I'm not saying any of this is true in particular about Stafford. I'll look through the almanac and see I can summarize what they have written there (without giving away too much information to non-purchasers).

Re: How Does It Work?
by Enzo :: Sun, 08/12/2012 - 1:24pm

Also... ummm... bukaki... :P

Thank you so much for the info, though. Now that I know that the glossary exists, I'll make sure to make use of it. In conjunction with your Stafford explanation in the other thread, I think you pretty much just sold me on FOA2012.

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