09 Sep 2009
This is all hypothetical. Just an idea I had, and I wanted to see what people thought about it.
So cheatsheets are made by projecting a player's stats, converting those stats into points, and then making an overall list using some sort of baseline. But no one seems sure of what baseline to use. Should it be last starter, last drafted player, median player, or something else entirely? I wonder therefore if there might be a better way that avoids the sticky problem of baselines.
Let's imagine that the points scored by every player is already known going into draft day. This means that the order in which the QBs should be drafted, for example, is public knowledge. For each team, then, the only decision they need ot make is what position to draft in each round. They choose to draft QB (or RB or whatever), and then they take the highest player left at that position. If we assume that a snake draft evenly distributes talent as it is supposed to do, I believe that the best cheatsheet is the one that if everyone follows exactly, there will be the minimum amount of variation in points scored by each of the teams.
In turn, I could imagine it to be possible for one to create a computer program that finds this optimum draft order. This becomes your overall cheatsheet.
An obvious problem would be how to deal with backup players. They must be included because the relative value of each position is dependent on how many rounds the draft goes. If you imagine say an 8 round draft in a league where teams get no backups, then obviously a defense and kicker can get drafted no later than the 7th and 8th round. But if it's a 16 round draft with a bunch of backups, then those positions might move down to the 10th or the 12th or what have you.
But on the other side, obviously you have to discount the value of backups or otherwise the algorithm might say that the best strategy is to take QBs in each of the first two rounds, even though you can only start one. To me a reasonable answer is to multiply each player's projected points by the fraction of games that they are to be started. If you analyzed thousands of leagues, you could probably get pretty accurate numbers for a RB3 and a RB4 and a WR3 and so on. The average team with 2 RB starters and no offensive flex might start their 3rd RB 3 times in a season, so that 3rd RB would be worth 3/16 of their total value.
That's my idea. Does it seem to make sense? And second, is it possible? I know that it may very well be impossible to try out every possible draft order combination. I wonder if instead we could start with some sort of default draft order, and then watch players bubble up or down as the team which drafted them has projected points is higher or lower than the league average.
3 replies , Last at 10 Sep 2009, 10:58am by Key19