23 Jul 2013
I've calculated my KUBIAK projections, and it turns out that there is a WR at the top of my list with 164 Fantasy Points over Baseline (FPOB). Let's assume I have first pick in my draft. So, I should draft that WR first overall, right? Well, I'm not so sure. I've been doing some mock drafts and what's happening is during the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds, it's much easier to get a decent WR than a decent RB, so I'm thinking maybe I want to wait on a WR.
I don't want to give away any players' names on a public forum, so forgive me if I'm being too vague here, but with picks 24 and 25, the RBs I can draft have an average of about 57.5 FPOB, and the WRs I can draft usually have an average of about 107 FPOB.
With picks 48 and 49 the RBs I can draft usually are worth about 25 FPOB and WRs are worth about 62.5 FPOB.
So, by taking the highest-rated RB (who has 150 FPOB) over the highest-rated WR (who has 162 FPOB) with the first overall pick I'm losing 12 Fantasy Points over Baseline, but I'm eliminating the need to draft a RB instead of a WR with picks 24 or 25 (which would be a loss of ~57.5 - 107 = -49.5 FPOB) or with picks 48 and 49 (which would be a loss of ~25 - 62.5 = -37.5). Clearly the 12-point hit in the first round is the best option, and therefore I should go with the RB. Is this accurate? (Assume picks 72, 73, 96, 97, etc. give similar results)
15 replies , Last at 18 Oct 2013, 4:41am by yakey