Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

17 Aug 2011

impact of kickoff rule change (for return yard leagues)

How does KUBIAK account for (or not account for) this year's kickoff rule change with respect to return yard projections?

Posted by: mcbrown on 17 Aug 2011

1 reply , Last at 17 Aug 2011, 2:30pm by Lomn

1
Re: impact of kickoff rule change (for return yard leagues)
by Lomn :: Wed, 08/17/2011 - 2:30pm

The short answer is that KUBIAK 2010 projected an average of 1500 kickoff yds/team while KUBIAK 2011 projects an average of 1000 kickoff yds/team. Assuming MMQB was correct about touchback rate, 85% of last year's kickoffs were returned; assuming kickoff return length doesn't vary dramatically, this projection calls for about 55-60% of kickoffs to be returned (versus the 65-70% observed first week of preseason).

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