31 Jul 2012
I've been wrestling with this decision in my fantasy leagues, and KUBIAK thinks it's a neck and neck. So I broke it down myself, starting with attempts: last year Jimmy Graham had 149 targets to Gronks 124.
Them being neck and neck makes sense on the surface, until I saw that KUBIAK has Graham's targets taking a big hit, while Gronks stay close to the same.
I calculated the amount of targets each player on the Saints and Patriots is receiving. (I asked in the past why QB Attempts and adding up the targets were different numbers and was told that QB attempts were different due to things like camp battles and inaccuracy of trying to predict exact targets)
When adding up the Saints WR, TE, and RB pass attempts, KUBIAK has Drew Brees at 576 attempts. KUBIAK itself seems to disagree with this, as it's projecting 626 attempts. Brees hit 630+ 4 times within the last 5 years.
The Saints have added a few rookies and their D doesn't look to get much better than last year after Bountygate, so this'd seem to favor continuing passing a ton. They haven't added any receivers (Don't get me wrong, I love Toon as much as the next guy. . .) to take away from Graham's workload, who in targets was really the #1 WR on the team.
Tom Brady came to 624 attempts to WRs/RBs/TEs (I removed Addai since he's not on the team). Tom Brady had 611 last year, in what was a career year for attempts for him. In his entire career, he's only hit above 580 twice - last year, and 2002.
The Patriots have also drafted heavy D, seem to have improved their running game, and picked up another high volume WR to further dilute players like Gronks attempts. Hernandez also missed a few games to increase Gronks targets as well.
So all this pretty much creates 3 long-winded questions for me:
1) Why does KUBIAK think Graham's targets drop so much?
2) Why does it think Gronk's targets stay close to the same? Trends seem to suggest they'll drop quite a bit.
3) What does this mean for Brandon Lloyd, who it seems to think is essentially taking the Deion Branch role?
5 replies , Last at 30 Aug 2012, 6:40am by FrenchEagles