Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

06 Sep 2010

Johnny Knox

First year of fantasy football. My specific question is should I start Johnny Knox? He'd have to start over C. Benson, Mendenhall, J. Charles, NYG Steve Smith or Greg Jennings. The Giants face the Panthers and as a Giants fan I'm not exactly convinced they're going to be effective against the Panthers. Knox faces the Lions, poor on defense last season but it seems like people expect Suh to give them a big boost. Thoughts?

I guess what I'm pointing at is a more general question for experienced fantasy football players: How soon do you jump on a guy expected to have a breakout. Knox should be better than last year but am I looking at a gradual progression or a sudden jump?

I haven't followed the Bears much at all this preseason so I'm not sure who they've targeted on offense and how often. Any info?

Thanks

Posted by: afiliac1 on 06 Sep 2010

5 replies , Last at 08 Sep 2010, 1:45pm by Led

1
Re: Johnny Knox
by Crushinator :: Mon, 09/06/2010 - 6:43pm

Well, first things first - whenever asking a start or sit 'em question, make sure you include your leagues scoring format. Advice on say, a PPR (Gotta start Steve Smith) is a lot different than a non PPR. Also list who each player is playing.

A good rule of thumb for Fantasy Football is consider when you drafted a player and why you drafted them. You probably drafted Mendenhall in the first or second round - why consider benching him for a guy who you likely got in the 7th or 8th round? Matchups matter but stars are stars.

In your list, I think Charles and Mendenhall are "Have to start these guys" - Soft matchups, good situations, lots of talent.

I think the most likely player to bench on your list is Steve Smith - I wouldn't consider benching any of the others. Knox has a very juicy matchup, the Lions secondary is god awful even with their improved D-line and Steve Smith is going up against a top tier pass D, at least, last year.

In a non-PPR format, its close, but I'd start Knox. The Lions were god awful last year, and I think Knox is the best Chicago receiver. I'm not buying the Bears as being this rekindled offense now that Martz is there, but even an average passing offense should carve up Detroit.

In PPR, you have to start Steve Smith.

2
Re: Johnny Knox
by afiliac1 :: Mon, 09/06/2010 - 7:38pm

Thanks a lot.
Standard scoring.
It was really between Knox or Smith, just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything.
Food for thought: Smith had a TD and 70 yards receiving against the Panthers last December (looked this up after posting). Do we think Knox can best this/Smith will repeat this effort?

3
Re: Johnny Knox
by BEEF :: Tue, 09/07/2010 - 9:10pm

Sorry, I just have to ask. First year of fantasy football and you found this site, How did you do that?

It took me a year to figure out I needed it and another year to find it.

You owe a six pack to whoever gave up the information that quickly, and another 6 pack for each win in the playoffs.

Good luck this year!

4
Re: Johnny Knox
by afiliac1 :: Wed, 09/08/2010 - 1:05am

Schatz is always on the BS Report on ESPN.com. Heard about him two seasons ago and liked his analysis so I started visiting the site last year. So I guess I owe myself a six pack.

5
Re: Johnny Knox
by Led :: Wed, 09/08/2010 - 1:45pm

I have a similar dilemma: Knox or Hakeem Nicks this week. I'm leaning toward Knox because of the defenses.

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