Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

25 Jul 2012

Julio Jones

Was looking through this years KUBIAK and was surprised at Julio Jones projection being lower than I expected, and KUBIAK is showing his numbers are pretty close to last years despite going into his second year and assuming he plays 3 more games (as he only played 13 in 2011). Can anyone shed some light on what the system doesn't like about him? Is it just Gonzo/Roddy biting into targets?

Posted by: Crushinator on 25 Jul 2012

1 reply , Last at 26 Jul 2012, 10:24am by MatMan

Re: Julio Jones
by MatMan :: Thu, 07/26/2012 - 10:24am

I don't have last year's KUBIAK handy for a comparison, but when I see something like that I narrow the spreadsheet down to show only that team's players & try to figure it out from there.

For instance, KUBIAK predicts 552 pass attempts by Matt Ryan. It has Roddy White, Julio Jones & Tony Gonzales getting 375 of those targets, with just 42 targets separating first from third. Jaquizz Rogers and Harry Douglas get about 50 each, with the rest of the team splitting the remaining 50.

That's not analysis...I'm just throwing raw data at you, but that's the sort of thing I examine when I'm trying to figure out what in the world KUBIAK is thinking. Perhaps KUBIAK thinks he's going to have a poor completion % or something. Run the numbers & find out (that may already be done for you in FOA...not sure.)

Somewhat related: by my league's scoring, KUBIAK has Ryan as QB5, 29th overall. That's 50 spots higher than ADP. Not surprisingly, he was one of the first QBs whose stats I took a close look at.

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