Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

14 Aug 2009

Keeper Help

I'm just looking for some help from you more knowledgeable folks. I'm in a 12 team league with fairly standard scoring and very light, odd keeper rules. There are only 2 keeper slots, plus you are penalized for your keeper selections based on where the player was last drafted. It works like this: if player A was drafted in the fourth round in 2008, he costs a third round pick this year and, assuming he's kept, would cost a first round pick in 2010 (in case of both keepers overlapping, you lose the next lower round pick). There are some flaws in the system, but they haven't really been a problem yet. Anyway, the rosters are QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,WR,TE,K,D,6xBench.

I'm trying to decide between Turner for a 1st round pick penalty and Brees for a 2nd rounder. There are probably 5 or 6 teams that would draft before me in the first round, although I'm actually in the 10 slot (my team had a meltdown in week 16). My other keeper is a no-brainer (I think) with Slaton for only a 10th rounder. I could be overlooking something, so I'll give you my other options that aren't awful with their potential draft round penalties: Gore(1), Boldin(3), Lee Evans(4), Jennings(5), Jason Campbell(11).

Sorry for the oddball system (yes, I understand the flaws in it) and long-winded explanation. Reading around here, it sounds like you guys would go with Slaton/Brees, but I want to make sure that I'm not missing something. Thanks for any help.

Posted by: familynight on 14 Aug 2009

3 replies , Last at 19 Aug 2009, 3:41pm by nojo

Re: Keeper Help
by Dan :: Sat, 08/15/2009 - 7:26am

Slaton and Jennings. Those are the two that are worth a lot more than the pick you're giving up. Definitely not Brees - there's no need to give up a 2nd rounder for him when he or Brady will probably still be available when you draft in the 2nd. Turner is the only other option that's worth considering - if you think that he's way better than what you could draft with your 1st round pick then it would be reasonable for you to keep him. I don't think that he is, so I wouldn't keep him. But I probably would keep Peterson(1) over Jennings(5), so if you think that Turner is right up there with Peterson then it would be understandable to keep Turner.

Re: Keeper Help
by nojo :: Wed, 08/19/2009 - 3:41pm

Just a word of caution around your line of thinking here. In a keeper league with 2 keepers, the first round is much closer to the 3rd round in other leagues. Are you really certain that people won't be taking Brees and Brady as their third players?

Re: Keeper Help
by Marcumzilla :: Sat, 08/15/2009 - 11:28pm

My first thought was also Jennings. I could see an argument for Gore as well, but I think Jennings is the best value. You're getting him ~two rounds early.

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