Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

14 Aug 2009

Kevin Smith help

I draft next week in a PPR leagues (WCOFF rules), and I am considering taking Kevin Smith in the 3rd round if he is available, really based on his potential.

Default KUBIAK stats for Smith are around 1250 total yards and 9 TDs with 30 receptions, which is a fair estimate, and my intrigue is based on him getting closer to 1400 yards and 50 receptions.

My question is based on his ranking among RBs - he appears to be the 20th ranked RB by KUBIAK, and should I be concerned that he is ranked between Julius Jones and Cedric Benson - players I can pick up much later in the draft?

Should I interpret this to think that Pierre Thomas and Ronnie Brown are much better picks in the mid-third round, and that this slot is too high to take Kevin Smith?

Just want to make sure I fully understand the software before making early draft moves on it.

(I pick #7 of 12 - from looking through mock drafts, I am confident in it's ideas of taking either Steven Jackson or Andre Johnson round 1 and Reggie Wayne or Marion Barber round 2)

Posted by: dkbergen on 14 Aug 2009

2 replies , Last at 18 Aug 2009, 11:12am by dkbergen

1
Re: Kevin Smith help
by Marcumzilla :: Fri, 08/14/2009 - 7:57pm

That's not a bad draft slot to have.

You shouldn't look solely at their Kubiak rating - you also have to look at their value for the pick. Kubiak may say Julius Jones is 3rd round material, but if he's going in rounds 7-9, you should wait a little to pick him up. Following it more blindly was a mistake I made in my earlier years of using it.

As for Pierre Thomas, Ronnie Brown, and Kevin Smith, there's a large amount of personal preference. You may not even get a chance to pick from amongst them and have your choice cruelly thrust upon you. Smith and Brown will get a higher percentage of carries, but Thomas is on a higher scoring team. Brown has shown the highest production, but he's also had the big injury, but that's a couple years removed, and Miami has upgraded its O-line more. Personally, I think Brown has the most upside, but also carries the highest risk.

2
Re: Kevin Smith help
by dkbergen :: Tue, 08/18/2009 - 11:12am

Thanks man

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