Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

20 Sep 2010

kicker production : total offense

Asuming all the variables are equal, kickers of equal skill, field goals/PATs are all of equal difficulty etc... is there a directly proportional relationship between total offensive points and the total points produced by a kicker? If not how do they differ?

I'm hoping someone out there has crunched the numbers.

Posted by: bionic ape on 20 Sep 2010

4 replies , Last at 26 Sep 2011, 3:55am by gfaga

Re: kicker production : total offense
by bionic ape :: Mon, 09/20/2010 - 2:52am

Is there an offensive statistic that more closely approximates a directly proportional relationship?

Re: kicker production : total offense
by Dan :: Mon, 09/20/2010 - 10:32pm

Looking at the 2009 data, there is a strong linear relationship, with a correlation r = .79, between the total number of points that a team scores in a season (PF) and the number of kicking points that they score (KPTS). The equation to estimate kicking points is KPTS = 46 + .18 x PF. If you want points per game instead of for the whole season, just divide by 16 (or use KPTS/g = 2.9 + .18 x PPG).

Bad teams get more field goals relative to touchdowns, which is why there's that 46 (or 2.9) that you add on.

Re: kicker production : total offense
by bionic ape :: Tue, 09/21/2010 - 11:33pm

Thank you, that's exactly the type of answer I was looking for.

Seems like a strong argument for generally going with the fantasy kicker on the team thats scoring the most. Maybe he won't produce the most points on any particular week but will most likely do so for the season.

Re: kicker production : total offense
by gfaga (not verified) :: Mon, 09/26/2011 - 3:55am

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