Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

25 Aug 2011

Kickers and Extra Points

I understand that Kubiak does not project missed extra points due to their random nature. I agree that it tends not to affect the predictive abilities of DVOA, etc.

However, in a fantasy league where kickers are penalized for missed extra points, if kickers are not penalized, would that not slightly overrate them in comparison to other positions?

I'm thinking about going into the tables and reducing each kickers raw score by 2 extra points (-1 point for the miss and -1 for the opportunity cost of not making the xp). I don't think this will affect the kickers in relation to each other, but once the calculations are created, this should lower - slightly - their Dynamic Fantasy Points and FFPOB, slightly devaluing them in comparison with other positions.

Prior to doing this, 21 kickers are listed in the top 140 (10 teams, 14 rounds), and that fails the eyeball test.

Am I duplicating work that FO has already factored? Am I just splitting hairs? Thoughts?

Posted by: Dean on 25 Aug 2011

1 reply , Last at 25 Aug 2011, 4:22pm by Zac

1
Re: Kickers and Extra Points
by Zac :: Thu, 08/25/2011 - 4:22pm

FPOB is Fantasy Points Over Baseline, and part of that is figuring out how each kicker does in comparison to the last starting kicker. So adjusting it for missed XP isn't necessary.

If you're getting 21 kickers in the top 140 in a 10-team league, something is wrong. I would suggest you double-check what you have the Waiver Adjustment set to. If you have it set to 1, then you're telling KUBIAK that you want the 10th Kicker to be at 0 FPOB, which makes it worth as much as the #10 QB, the #20 RB, and the #20 WR (in leagues where you start 1 QB, 2 RBs, and 2 WRs). This is obviously way too high for most leagues.

Instead, you should at the least have it set to 3. This basically says that a kicker and a defense are no more valuable than a 2nd QB, 4th or 5th RB, 4th or 5th WR. If you have it set like this (and remember to hit "Generate My Kubiak" after making any changes), there should be no way that you have more than 10 kickers in the ranking of draftable players.

Login or register to post comments