Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

9 replies [Last post]

11 Aug 2011

Kubiak 2011 - Fantasy Points Over Baseline

I too am excited for the arrival of KUBIAK & FOA 2011, FANTASTICO :-)

Alas, I feel as though I am an archeologist that has discovered some powerful Alien technology that I lack sufficient intelligence to use to its complete benefit.

The statistic FPOB is an example; as my league is an enigma where 12 GM can choose to run one of three different 'formations' on any given week; these 'formations' all include a single QB, K, DL, DB, LB but can vary for the remaining 5 players

1. The run & shoot - 1 RB, 4 WR
2. The wishbone - 2 RB, 3 TE
3. A standard 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE

Scoring is yardage and TD based. It has elements of keeper and auction. All of these elements combine to complicate the determination of a 'baseline' value for each position.

As such, my question, Is there a particular thread, article, someone can point me to that elaborates on the concept of FPOB &/or the customization of the Kubiak in detail. I know the spreadsheet has some description(s) for the various settings, but again I often feel like

.... I'm face-painted and 'doing the wave' on a bed of crushed cool-ranch tortilla chips in hopes that the fantasy Gods will smile upon me.....

Posted by: DRoemelt on 11 Aug 2011

9 replies , Last at 12 Aug 2011, 2:14pm by DRoemelt

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Re: Kubiak 2011 - Fantasy Points Over Baseline
by outkastx (not verified) :: Thu, 08/11/2011 - 2:31pm

You would have:

1 RB
2 FLEX (RB/WR/TE)
2 WR/TE

2
Re: Kubiak 2011 - Fantasy Points Over Baseline
by Phyrre564 (not verified) :: Thu, 08/11/2011 - 2:45pm

1 RB
1 RB/WR
3 WR/TE

It's still not perfect because this would allow several impossible combinations such as RB/RB/WR/WR/WR or RB/WR/WR/WR/TE. Let's see if we can simplify this with some strategy.

In terms of valuation, your first RB should only be compared to other RBs. You have to start at least one.

The rest of your players (RB #2s and higher / WRs / TEs) should be put in one big list. Unless you have unique rules, the TEs will probably fall to the bottom. I think based on the rules, you should never draft a 2nd starting TE for a few reasons:

1)Now you HAVE to start a 3rd TE who is probably not very good, at least not compared to available WRs. There is no 2 TE set.

2) If your TEs start getting injured and you abandon the wishbone formation, now you need to acquire at least 2 waiver wire WRs. That's a lot of injury risk.

So if you ignore the wishbone because it makes poor strategic sense, things get simpler:

1 RB
2 WR
1 RB/WR
1 WR/TE

This is what I would do. Forget the wishbone, you're not winning with a 3 TE lineup!

3
Re: Kubiak 2011 - Fantasy Points Over Baseline
by jayhawkco :: Thu, 08/11/2011 - 4:06pm

I agree completely. But I wonder if perhaps TEs get scored differently than WRs and RBs. The OP didn't say anything similar, but if they did, it messes things up all over again.

Chris

4
Re: Kubiak 2011 - Fantasy Points Over Baseline
by Phyrre56 :: Thu, 08/11/2011 - 4:19pm

It just occurred to me that maybe the wishbone is supposed to be 3 RB, 2 TE. That would actually make more sense, since the traditional wishbone set has 3 guys in the backfield (a fullback and 2 running backs).

If that's the case, then things get messy again. :-(

5
Re: Kubiak 2011 - Fantasy Points Over Baseline
by DRoemelt :: Fri, 08/12/2011 - 7:08am

I hate the wishbone - yes it was meant to be 3 RB and 2 TE

6
Re: Kubiak 2011 - Fantasy Points Over Baseline
by Phyrre56 :: Fri, 08/12/2011 - 8:47am

Well that's more complicated again now since 3 RB, 2 TE is much more viable than 2 RB, 3 TE.

Basically I think you have to just take the best available players early in the draft. Feel free to lock up a RB and maybe even a stud QB. Then you have to watch how the draft is progressing and decide if you want to focus on RB or WR. I would only go for wishbone if RBs were criminally underdrafted and I could lock up my 2nd and 3rd starters very early. Then you know you can basically ignore WR, and just stockpile RBs.

If everyone is normally drafted, go Standard.

If everyone is trying for the Wishbone approach and locking up RB stables, then stockpile WRs and consider the Run & Shoot.

It's all about being reactive. The only two spots you know you can invest in are QB and RB #1. Everyone else is dependent.

7
Re: Kubiak 2011 - Fantasy Points Over Baseline
by DRoemelt :: Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:59am

Hey, thank you for your comments - Here's what I've come up with that enables me to use the Kubiak; Like to hear your thoughts though.

Again there are 3 alternatives in addition to everyone starting QB, K, DL, DB, LB, & Def-Flex

2RB, 2WR, 1TE
3RB, 2TE
1RB, 4WR

By setting the TE method to "2"; TE are treated like WR and the 3 formations reduce to

2RB, 3WR/TE
3RB, 2WR/TE
1RB, 4WR/TE

The 'How many' options are then completed as follows

QB = 1
RB = 1
WR = 2
TE = 0
RB/WR(and TE) Flex = 2

Now for my next question.

We have a YARDAGE and TD scoring system in which TD's are always 6 points but YARDAGE scoring has threshold's, after which it is scored incrementally

PASSING, 2 points for 1st 200 yards, 2 points for each additional 50 yards
RUSHING/RECEIVING, 2 points for the 1st 50 yards, 2 points for each additional 25 yards

Kubiak doesn't allow for thresholds - which is a problem - to put this in context,
if the baseline QB throws for 3600 yards per season, that averages 225 yards/gm or 2 points for yardage alone. Similarly,
if the baseline RB/WR (or TE), player rushes or receives for 800 yards per season, 50 per game or 2 points for yardage alone.

So scoring for yardage beneath these thresholds is conceivably material.

AS A FIRST PASS I DECIDED TO SET

PASSING AT 1 PT PER 50 YRD
RUSH/RECEIVING AT 2 PT PER 25

UNDER THE IDEA THAT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL GET A BUMP OF ABOUT 2 PTS PER GAME(?); BASELINE WILL GET INCREASED BUT UNIFORMLY(?)

Any OTHER idea's? on how to tweak Kubiak for this type of system with threshold/incremental scoring

8
Re: Kubiak 2011 - Fantasy Points Over Baseline
by Phyrre56 :: Fri, 08/12/2011 - 12:12pm

Hmm...I think your KUBIAK setup is going to underrate TE and overrate WR because you're allowing for lineups like 2 RB / 3 WR or 3 RB / 2 WR, neither of which is actually allowed.

I guess my main advice for you is to join a league that has rules that don't seem like they were created in 1986! :-)

KUBIAK doesn't support much incremental scoring, because it's impossible to predict. It's hard enough to predict total stats for the season...individual game stats are kind of impossible.

One idea is to avoid RBs that get a lot of receptions. They are going to lose on the bonuses since 50 rush yards + 50 receiving yards =/= 100 rush yards. The guys who focus on rushing only are going to be somewhat more valuable (I'm looking at you, Michael Turner). Similarly, scrambling QBs won't be as good as pure passers, so pass on Vick.

9
Re: Kubiak 2011 - Fantasy Points Over Baseline
by DRoemelt :: Fri, 08/12/2011 - 2:14pm

:-)

I'm getting out the Doritos and Face Paint