Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

23 Aug 2011

KUBIAK help with unique scoring league

Hello all,

I'm in a 16 team league with a unique but simple set of scoring rules. I've tried my best to tailor these rules to the KUBIAK scoring sheet and I'm pretty happy with the results. I'm just posting this to see if any members have additional suggestions on any different ways to account for these scoring rules. Here are the rules (all scoring is unique to the position, except all rushing TDs=6pts):
+6 for 300 yards passing
+3 for passing TD
-1 for interception
+3 for each 50yrds rushing
+3 for 100 yards rushing
+6 for 125 yards rushing
+3 each 50 yards receiving
+6 each TD scored
+6 for 100 yards
+6 for each TD scored
+3 for each 50 yards receiving
+6 for each TD scored
+1 each PAT kicked
+3 each field goal
+6 rushing TD
+1 each interception
+1 each fumble recovered
+1 each sack
+2 safety
+6 each TD scored

Very simple scoring method because its all done on paper (23 year old league). If you guys want to help point out something I might overlook in adapting this to the KUBIAK, I would greatly appreciate it.

Posted by: bada on 23 Aug 2011

5 replies , Last at 21 Aug 2012, 3:29pm by bada

Re: KUBIAK help with unique scoring league
by bada :: Tue, 08/23/2011 - 2:43pm

I guess that was a little vague. The real question is, will editing the values for the game bonus yardage amount in the C column of the scoring page effect the KUBIAK computations?
ie Changing the TE bonus from 100yards to 50?

Re: KUBIAK help with unique scoring league
by elgato7664 :: Tue, 08/23/2011 - 4:10pm

Here are some things that I would do to get good approximations of those positional bonuses:

#1: Running Backs +3 @ 100 Ru, +6 @125 Ru
In 2010, 48% of 100 yd rushing games ended 125+, so I would do this:
Set "Rushing Game Bonus (100 yard)" to 6 (or 4.5 if the +6 bonus cancels out the +3 bonus)
6 x 48% = 3 + 3

#2: Quarterbacks +3 @ 50 Ru
I'd just add these numbers manually to their formulas
35: Vick, Newton
5: Fitzpatrick, Freeman, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Campbell

#3: Running Backs +3 @ 50 Re
85 50-yd receiving games last year - 9.4 Projected 100-yd games - 2742 projected RB receptions
Set "Receptions RB" to .05
Set "Receiving Game Bonus RB (100 yard)" to 16

#4: Tight Ends +3 @ 50 Re
168 TE 50-yard Receiving games last year - 20.5 Projected 100-yd games - 2258 Projected Receptions
Set "Receptions TE" to .14
Set "Receiving Game Bonus TE (100 yard)" to 12

I didn't show the math on #3 & #4 because it gets a little complicated (but I can show the math & my reasoning if you really want me to).

Re: KUBIAK help with unique scoring league
by bada :: Wed, 08/24/2011 - 9:41am

Thanks for the help, but I'm not sure that produces the correct results because the QB's are being ranked too highly. The Top 16 with dynamic scoring looks like this:
Philip Rivers 146
Arian Foster 116
Michael Vick 137
Aaron Rodgers 136
Ray Rice 104
Adrian Peterson 104
Tom Brady 130
Andre Johnson 105
LeSean McCoy 100
Drew Brees 123
Maurice Jones-Drew 95
Rashard Mendenhall 94
Ben Roethlisberger 115
Michael Turner 87
Chris Johnson 83

Rivers scored 113 max last year (through FF playoffs)
Foster scored 165 last year
Rodgers 130

Usually QBs are taken late and are never valued this high.

Re: KUBIAK help with unique scoring league
by bada :: Tue, 08/21/2012 - 3:29pm

Are you finding the # of RB's 50 yard receiving games (and similar stats) in the premium content section?

Re: KUBIAK help with unique scoring league
by elgato7664 :: Wed, 08/24/2011 - 5:15pm

First of all, The QB Adjustment for #2 should just be to add 20 to Vick & Newton. Don't worry about the others (and I used a 5 point bonus for those calculations instead of 3).

Here is a comparison of the top 7 scoring QBs from last year:
Proj / Last yr / Player / (Games Missed)
158 / 150 Vick (11.5 Games)
128 / 134 Brady
137 / 130 Rodgers (14.5)
104 / 124 P.Manning [RED]
123 / 119 Brees
146 / 113 Rivers
99 / 102 Schaub

Yes, Rivers is a bit high --- a few more projected 300 yd games [VJax is back] & a few more Touchdowns. Just because he is listed #1, doesn't mean that you have to draft him. Feel free to place him between Brees & Schaub, or wherever you want.

The ratings order is based on Fantasy Points Over Baseline, last year the #16 scoring QB had 69 points, this year #16 is projected to score 66 points. So based on FPOB, it should be similar conditions as what actually happened last year.

Just because your league hasn't emphasized the QB position in the past, it doesn't mean that was the correct strategy.

Yes, Foster scored 162 last year, but he was a huge outlier.
- In 2010, Chris Johnson went from 174 points to 117 points (2nd highest behind Foster).
- In 2009, Deangelo Williams went from 153 points to 66 points.
- In 2009, Michael Turner went from 138 to 78.
- 2007, L.Johnson, 180 to 36.
- 2007, S.Jackson, 153 to 48.
- From 2006 to 2008 Tomlinson went from 255 to 147 to 81.

My point is that those outliers are going to be near impossible to predict and they will regress a large majority of the time.

Another change I would make is to change the Waiver adjustment to 3 so you don't discount the Tight End Position (namely, Antonio Gates).

And remember, this program is only a guide. Use this along with your knowledge of the league's historical drafting strategies to take advantage of when and whom to go after at each position.

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