Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

06 Oct 2011

Lost Britt and Andre Johnson, need trade help

Ok, I need some help formulating a trade for a WR in the short term and possibly long term. I have lost Britt for the season, and now I have lost A johnson for the next months or so. I have a very deep and stable RB core: Gore, Forte, Fred Jackson, Felix Jones so I was looking to move one of them for a WR. My only WRs right now are S Holmes, L Moore, D Moore so I'm not looking too good.

Taking the rest of the season into play, the production so far from them, and the likely caliber of WR i'd get back: which one of the 4 would you trade for a WR and what "quality" of WR would I expect in return. For example, could a trade gore for a low end 1/high 2? Should I move fred jackson since he's hot for a 1/2? Move jones for just a WR2 and wait for AJ?

I'm in a 0.5 PPR, the rest standard. Any ideas would be appreciated. Obviously I have to try and find a trade partner, but just looking for ideas before I make offers.

Posted by: hokieneer on 06 Oct 2011

3 replies , Last at 09 Oct 2011, 10:04pm by hokieneer

1
Re: Lost Britt and Andre Johnson, need trade help
by Sifter :: Fri, 10/07/2011 - 4:34pm

Gore and Fred Jackson would be the guys I'd look to move. According to a strength of schedule thing I saw, both have played the easiest parts of their seasons already so I think their value will only go down. Gore in particular has just played the worst run D he'll face all year (god damn it Philly...), so try and sell while he's high. Jackson plays Philly this week and will probably rack up yards like crazy, so wait a week to sell him.

Not sure what you can get for Gore, maybe only a WR2/WR3. If you do well you might find a Marshall/Harvin/Lloyd/S.Rice type for Gore. Jackson should net you someone nice though, I'd be looking for a top WR for him eg. Mike Wallace, Megatron, Jenning, maybe Miles Austin from someone who's sick of him being out.

Good luck!

2
Re: Lost Britt and Andre Johnson, need trade help
by Arjen.Robben :: Fri, 10/07/2011 - 4:35pm

Hakeem Nicks, Stevie Johnson, and Dez Bryant are my favorite buy-lows right now, in that order. All three will finish as WR1's. You should act now for Stevie or Hakeem, but have a little time with Dez on bye this week.

I wouldn't deal Forte. Jackson is your next most valuable RB, but you'll have to talk to the other owner to get a feel for what value he places in Jackson. It's more likely that you will not find an owner whose valuation of Jackson is actually in line with his true value as a solid, low-end RB1. I'd sell Gore to the owner who anchors Gore's value to his draft position and thinks he's buying low (in reality, Gore is an RB3 this year). I think that's your best option. Alternatively, you could sell Felix to the owner who wanted him really bad and missed out in the draft (probably the same owner who overvalues upside, under-weights injury risk, or is simply in a position to be risk-seeking).

I think Gore + a backup WR or mid-range TE (bench guys who won't actually by contributing points to your team on a weekly basis) might score you Stevie or Dez in the right circumstances. Your call though. Personally, I think Stevie finishes as a top 6 WR and Dez as top 8.

3
Re: Lost Britt and Andre Johnson, need trade help
by hokieneer :: Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:04pm

So after some long talks with a few owners, I got a deal offered: Roddy White for Frank gore. I have a lot higher opinion of Gore than a RB3, I say he's a very solid RB2. That said, I think I'm going to jump on that trade.

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