Talk amongst yourselves
7/27: ARI TE, various IDP updates.
* * * * *
The 2015 KUBIAK fantasy football projection workbook updates all preseason for only $20 -- or get it absolutely free with a $10 first-time deposit at DraftKings.com. Purchase it here!
10 Jul 2012
Had to do a double-take when I saw where he was ranked.
Posted by: abernethyj on 10 Jul 2012
10 replies , Last at
17 Jul 2012, 11:13am by
He's ranked as the 6th RB overall after finishing in a standard scoring league at. . . 6. Not sure what's surprising about that.
With AP possibly MIA and most RB situations being committees, it's not too surprising that a workhorse RB like Lynch is ranked high.
All right, all right, fair enough. I suppose my past grievances with him are overshadowed by his workload.
It does seem counterintuitive given the offense and the lack of involvement in the passing game... but over 280 carries does build up the points. He may be getting credit for being handicapped by his line last year, too.
In terms of player, Lynch is just not that different from Rashard Mendenhall.
He's a workhorse back behind a mediocre line with nobody clearly there to steal any carries from him. He puts up a negligible amount of passing yardage to go with a million carries at a low YPC and all his teams rushing TDs.
Good comparison. I would also add that to justify a ranking of RB6, Lynch would have to hit *at least* 12 rushing TDs to compensate for the shortcomings you mentioned. Even in Mendenhall's '10 season, when he had 13 TDs and comparable total yardage to Lynch last year, I believe he finished at RB8. To draft Lynch at that price is to expect him to reach his statistical ceiling, more or less, in two straight years. I'd rather wait a round or two and grab Steven Jackson, Michael Turner, or even Ahmad Bradshaw, though he has his own risks to consider.
Still, with all of that said, considering how uncertain the position is after the top 3, I understand the rationale for ranking him that highly.
I understand that the main reason he is ranked so high is because of the scarcity at the RB position.
HOWEVER, even if he finishes as the number six running back over all, it will be at the expense of many weeks where he puts up a very low point total. It may be hard to believe given his streak of touchdowns last year, but Lynch was actually incredibly inconsistent in every stat last year on a per game basis, including touchdowns. I personally prefer to have a player who is going to be consistently getting me points than a player who will get me more points over the season at the expense of consistency.
I don't think you'll find variance projections in most fantasy football rankings. You can estimate based on strength of schedule and how touchdown dependent the player is. I also wonder if year to year variance correlates much.
Well, it looks like those of you who would like to see Mr. Lynch drop lower in KUBIAK will get your wish, as he was arrested for DUI and will likely be suspended for a couple games.
© Football Outsiders, Inc. // Site powered by Stein-Wein // Partner of USA TODAY Sports Digital Properties