Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

17 Sep 2009

Math-based "never punt" strategy article

http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=892888

Interesting article on a HS football team adopting a "never punt" strategy based on statistical analysis. Basic premise is that typical net gain from a HS punt is not worth giving up the opportunity to go for it in ALL 4th down situations.

Posted by: JDog_TX on 17 Sep 2009

2 replies , Last at 02 Oct 2009, 11:28am by kaptrap19

1
Re: Math-based "never punt" strategy article
by 2manyids :: Fri, 09/18/2009 - 11:15am

That's brilliant. I can only imagine the sheer bewilderment the fans in the stands had the first time he went for it on a 4th down inside his own 20. Thanks for posting that.

2
Re: Math-based "never punt" strategy article
by kaptrap19 :: Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:28am

I agree with most of that, but if you're on your own ten yard line, why would you go for it on 4th down? sure if you punt it it'll give the opponent a shorter field, but not as short of a field as if you don't convert- and converting 4th downs are fucking hard in the NFL

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