Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

30 Aug 2011

McFadden vs. Hillis

In a 0.5 PPR, who do you like more in the second round? I've got the 16th overall pick and would prefer to pick up a running back here.

I tend to view Hillis as the more consistent/safer option, and McFadden as the upside play. This could be a pivotal decision point in my draft, and one where Kubiak seems to disagree with the general fantasy pundit consensus.

Posted by: Arjen.Robben on 30 Aug 2011

3 replies , Last at 01 Sep 2011, 6:57pm by Arjen.Robben

1
Re: McFadden vs. Hillis
by tally :: Tue, 08/30/2011 - 2:22pm

Based on risk, KUBIAK thinks McFadden is more likely to reach his projections, but they do like Hillis more. In a 16+ team draft, you might not even get the chance to take McFadden, since he's going around 15th overall ADP, while Hillis is going at least a round later. But you won't be able to wait on Hillis either, so I'd actually take him.

There's a group of RBs that are going much later than McFadden but whom KUBIAK projects to be pretty similar (Felix Jones, Matthews, Benson, etc.) that you could get similar production from but with a 3rd or 4th round pick.

2
Re: McFadden vs. Hillis
by JuridianSantaal... :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:27pm

KUBIAK disagrees, but remember to look at why it disagrees.

I think McFadden personally is one of the players that it has wrong. His team ran 501 times last year, and he was getting 17 carries a game when he was in. Even if they run significantly less, his 192 carries to Bush's 138 is absurd. (nearly half of Bush's carries last year came on the 3 games McFadden missed). They have him dropping around 81 attempts (assuming a healthy year) and nearly 1 YPC. Nothing that Hue Jackson has said implies that he won't be the focal point of this offense. I like Hillis and his schedule a lot, but McFadden is being badly underprojected by KUBIAK and its still giving him a comparatively good score. I don't see how you can choose Hillis over him if he's there.

3
Re: McFadden vs. Hillis
by Arjen.Robben :: Thu, 09/01/2011 - 6:57pm

This is really good analysis. Thanks! I tend to agree. The mains sources of uncertainty for me are the Oakland O-Line and the coaching changes. Either way, as a fantasy owner I generally have a high tolerance for the perceived riskiness of players. Although I love Hillis, I am more likely to select McFadden.

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