Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

17 Sep 2010

Mendenhall or BJax?

Gone back and forth. DVOA says BJax has a much better matchup (-28% Def DVOA for Tennessee, whom Mendenhall faces on the road; 1.8% def DVOA for Buffalo, who visits Green Bay). However, Jackson's usage is more of a question mark -- will he lose the goal line carries? -- yet Mendenhall's score last week came mostly from his overtime run. Of course I could start both but that would mean benching Forte and I don't want to do that as our league scores half a point per reception.

Posted by: agauntpanda on 17 Sep 2010

4 replies , Last at 18 Sep 2010, 6:05pm by tally

Re: Mendenhall or BJax?
by VaingloriousBasterd :: Sat, 09/18/2010 - 12:47am

Depends on your scoring a bit, but the Buffalo at home matchup might be the next best thing to having a running back going against the Colts. The Packers should beat the Bills by a lot, which means more TDs to be had and more chances to run the ball. Also, the Stealers are staring their 3rd string QB. I would put too much into the DVOA ratings this early in the year.

Re: Mendenhall or BJax?
by agauntpanda :: Sat, 09/18/2010 - 1:25am

I think that is basically right. Forte and BJax it is!

Re: Mendenhall or BJax?
by denemc :: Sat, 09/18/2010 - 4:34pm

Not to steal your question, but I'm in a similar spot. I'm benching Forte for Mendenhall this week (my other starter is Ahmad Bradshaw - playing at Indy). Could be making a mistake? What was your rationale for going with Forte?

Re: Mendenhall or BJax?
by tally :: Sat, 09/18/2010 - 6:05pm

DVOA likes Mendenhall's matchup with TEN: +9%.

I think he'll have more overall opportunity than BJax and a better matchup than Forte.

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