Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

17 Feb 2010

Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?

Looking forward today, after considering what happened in 2009, who will be the most overrated player in fantasy football heading into 2010 drafts?

Obviously, some players will change teams and that will affect this, but thoughts given 2009 performance:

- Willis McGahee (unlikely-to-repeat TD rate)
- Vernon Davis (same)
- Robert Meachem (flukily high catch rate -- especially with Brees)
- Shonn Greene (competition if Washington is re-signed, easy schedule, healthy OL)
- Aaron Rodgers (extremely easy schedule)

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 17 Feb 2010

73 replies , Last at 25 Feb 2010, 5:18pm by the chicken

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Big Johnson (not verified) :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 3:01pm

Im gonna go out on a limb and say fitzgerald. Before warner became the unquestioned starter fitzgerald was going in round 3 or 4 of fantasy drafts. Fitz will be content and will go on the cheeseburger diet this year. When he goes in the second round in your draft just point your finger and laugh

2
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by antimeria :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 3:25pm

if/when warner retires, i'd say another cardinal should be on the list: beanie wells (and to a lesser extent, hightower). i can't imagine anyone looking at matt leinart at qb and taking fitzy in the second, but you'll hear about russ grimm and the "new run-heavy az offense" all offseason.

3
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by commissionerleaf :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 3:34pm

Warner already announced his retirement, and he's no Brett Favre (which is a good thing on or off the field). My list:

1. Vernon Davis
2. Michael Crabtree
3. Chris Johnson
4. Drew Brees
5. Larry Fitzgerald
6. Vincent Jackson

Underrated:

1. Jay Cutler (Actually a decent potential Martz quarterback).
2. Anquan Boldin
3. Matt Stafford
4. Frank Gore
5. Tony Romo
6. Seattle Defense (They now have 6 games a year against Leinart/Bulger/Alex Smith).

13
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Brendan Scolari :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 4:47pm

I'm curious as to why you'd list Chris Johnson. Do you not think he deserves to be picked #1 or #2 overall?

And hell, if Seattle's D is underrated for the reason you mentioned then certainly the Niner's and Card's D's are too, every QB in the NFC West sucks.

22
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Yaguar :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 5:53pm

It's usually a safe bet that the guy picked #1 or #2 overall will underperform his draft position by a significant margin.

36
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Whatev (not verified) :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 5:44am

Yeah, but since that's true of anybody you could pick there, it's a meaningless criticism. If people are making non-stupid picks, the EV of those positions should still be greater than that of subsequent positions.

56
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by RickD :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 2:43am

It's not like we have to pay him NFL rates for the #1 pick.

If you don't think he's a top 2 pick, who should be ahead of him?

69
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by BigCheese :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 10:58pm

Wait, the 6-th best RB in 09 is underrated? Just how high do you think he should go?

Also I'm not sure ROmo will be underrated. He'll probably go about where he should. He's QB 6 in my book, after Brees, Manning, Rodgers, Shcaub and Rivers. So right around the top of hte second tier.

- Alvaro

4
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by hansen9j :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 3:45pm

How easy was Rodgers' schedule in 2008 when he also led the league in fantasy points? In both years I'm not seeing a huge difference between Passing VOA and Passing DVOA.

5
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Misfit74 :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 3:48pm

Brandon Jacobs
Mark Sanchez
Felix Jones
Shonn Greene
Randy Moss
Dustin Keller
Kevin Boss
Hakeem Nicks
Tom Brady
Reggie Wayne

6
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by big_jgke :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 3:49pm

Just one: Chris Johnson.

11
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Kal :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 4:46pm

This.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by commissionerleaf :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 5:24pm

/signed.

7
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Dan :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 3:55pm

If you want to know how players are rated, Fantasy Football Calculator already has mock drafts for the 2010 season with ADP. In standard 12-team leagues, they have Willis McGahee going in the 11th round as the 47th RB, Vernon Davis in the 4th (TE2), Robert Meachem in the 6th (WR27), Shonn Greene in the 3rd (RB16), and Aaron Rodgers in the 2nd (QB3).

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by commissionerleaf :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 5:30pm

Based on that ADP, I would say "the entire Minnesota Vikings Offense", plus Rashard Mendenhall, Brandon Marshall, Michael Turner, and Dallas Clark (again?!?!? He had a great year, but that isn't going to last with Gonzalez back and the young guys growing up).

6th round is still too high for Meachem. He's not even the 3rd WR on that team, although he may be with Lance Moore gone.

41
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by sundown (not verified) :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 3:10pm

Brandon Marshall is looking pretty solid to me--despite his suspension and other issues with McDaniels he still put up good numbers rivaling what he did with Shanahan/Cutler. I'd say the biggest threat to his production is being traded to a crappy team, which is sounds less likely now that Bowlen has said he'd like to keep him around.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Eddo :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 4:18pm

So staying around on a (potentially) crappy team won't be a threat to his production?

53
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by sundown (not verified) :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 8:27pm

Well, they lost 8 of 10 to close this season and his numbers were fine. Many of his best games were in losses, including his 21-catch game. Just like all other receivers and QBs, sometimes being behind is good in terms of Fantasy value.

54
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Eddo :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 10:14pm

Right. Sorry to have been vague earlier, but my point was that Marshall just did fine on a crappy team (the Broncos of the last ten games were indeed a crappy team), so he should be OK wherever he plays next year.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by jp6v (not verified) :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 9:31pm

I don't understand their data.

There were 716 mock drafts but Peyton Manning was only drafted in 138 of them?

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Dan :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 12:11am

He was drafted by a human 138 times, and by the computer the rest of the time. The times when the computer took him don't count towards his average. For players who were drafted very few times the numbers may be unreliable.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by MilkmanDanimal :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 3:59pm

Favre. The odds of him (A) repeating a phenomenal season a second time and (B) actually staying healthy all year are slim, but people will still wind up drafting him way the hell too high.

14
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Tim F. (not verified) :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 4:49pm

I wouldn't call the chances of him being healthy another season slim, the guy hasn't missed a game in how many years? I get that he's old, but slim seems a little strong.

Plus Percy should be better in his 2nd year. And hopefully Loadholt as well.

21
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by MilkmanDanimal :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 5:52pm

There's a big difference between "healthy" and "starting". Favre's bicep injury in 2008 caused him to drop off significantly. He's been dinged up plenty of times over the years; he's still played, but he hasn't played as well as he has when fully healthy. For a 40-year-old, he was incredibly healthy last year. Just don't see it happening again.

9
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by The Other Ben Johnson (not verified) :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 4:03pm

Is anybody else highly suspicious of Ced Benson after one good season?

12
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Tim F. (not verified) :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 4:47pm

Ced has had 1 1/2 good years now, no?

40
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Mansteel (not verified) :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 1:12pm

I'd be highly suspicious of Ced Benson if I saw him walking around in my neighborhood--he is a Bengal, after all.

10
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by The Other Ben Johnson (not verified) :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 4:29pm

Also, Thomas Jones: 377 carries. Yiiiiikes.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Brendan Scolari :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 4:57pm

The Curse of 370 has been mostly disproven here:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/07/drunkards-light-posts-and-myth-o...

If that's what you're referring to. I think TJ is pretty likely to decline, but that's because of his age and the natural regression of running backs, not because he had more carries than usual 8 months ago (8 months from the start of next season, that is).

24
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Jimmy Oz (not verified) :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 6:24pm

So its not an actual witchdoctor and chicken blood curse? Who woulda thunk it.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Brendan Scolari :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 9:14pm

You either didn't read the article or completely missed the point. The author's conclusion was that there was zero decline because of overuse, it was all natural regression to the mean. If you changed the number from 370 to just a few carries higher or lower, there was no effect. The FO guys cherry-picked the 370 number because it was the only way they could make their point.

It's very similiar to the "Verducci Effect" in baseball, neither actually shows the effect the authors think it does. When someone has all the luck and uncontrollable factors go their way one year (which causes them to have a strong enough year that they have heavy usage patterns), they naturally tend to perform worse the next year because most times the luck can't be repeated. It has nothing to do with their "abuse" or "overuse" causing them to decline the next year.

33
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by DaveRichters :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 10:51pm

Hi Brendan,

Really look at the data Brian presents in that article; they in no way refute the idea that overuse doesn't lead to subsequent decline. In fact, I think he makes the case for the curse far better than FO did. There is only one issue, which is whether Dickerson should be counted many times (once for each season), just once, or not at all. If you throw out all of Dickersons seasons with all the seasons from the outlier on the other side (only 1 season, obviously), then the effect remains for any cutoff near 370. And contrary to Brian's claim that the effect can't be so large if it depends on this triviality, the poor methodology makes the true effect appear much smaller (if there is a true effect), so we can't tell from his analysis what the effect of overuse is.

In truth, it is a sad fact of either nature or linguistics, depending on your point of view, that overuse leads to subsequent decline.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by RickD :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 2:58am

"Throwing out Dickerson" is really not defensible.

Let's say I was trying to write a paper saying that UV light didn't cause cancer in lab rats. But one of the lab rats got cancer, so I throw out that data point.

That's exactly what's going on here. It's not like there are any real criteria being used to censor the data. It's just that Dickerson flies in the face of the hypothesis. So FO says "just ignore that".

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by tuluse :: Sat, 02/20/2010 - 8:50pm

Well it would depend on how many rats you were looking at to decide if one rat getting cancer was significant or not. If 1 out of 500 gets cancer there might be a good bet it wasn't the UV light.

It would also depend on how controlled your experiment was. Lets just say using carries to measure "use" of a running back is not the most ideal of experiments. Going back to your analogy it would be more like concluding that UV light didn't cause cancer in rats because very few rats in nature got cancer. That argument would be defensible if not conclusive.

72
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by HostileGospel :: Sat, 02/20/2010 - 11:40pm

I'd look at my control group, and if I found that 1/500 rats in the control group developed cancer too, I wouldn't have much hesitation about excluding the rat from the test group. But since that doesn't translate well to running backs-

Since we're trying to determine if A (overuse) causes B (decline), as opposed to not causing B (as per your anology), let's make the analogy more accurate by trying to prove that UV light does cause cancer, and then say 499/500 rats develop cancer. Does one cancer-free rat invalidate the study? I'm sure it varies dependent on your branch of science and what you're measuring, but I can't imagine that all test subjects adhering to your hypothesis 100% is considered the standard for proving or disproving said hypothesis. At some point, it's reasonable to say "A causes B" despite it not doing so in all cases. I'd feel comfortable in saying that being shot in the head at point-blank range causes death, even though I could probably find a case where it didn't.

Or, to put it another way, I don't think 100% of smokers get lung cancer. Does that mean that smoking doesn't cause cancer?

--
There's a place I want to be. It's the NovaCare Center. That's in Philadelphia. One NovaCare Way, where the Eagles practice and then they eat cafeteria food and they watch film and we eat and we have fun.

-Donovan McNabb

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by roguerouge :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 4:45pm

For more on both sides of the Verducci effect, please see: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1509

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Brendan Scolari :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 5:34pm

Yeah, I saw that post. I don't see anything there that helps prove the Verducci Effect though. I agree there is a point where you are harming a pitcher's arm (that much should be obvious), I don't think the 30 inning rule is reasonable. Pitchers don't tend to be as healthy as they are in their best years (when they can rack up a lot of innings. For example, I don't think Chris Perry (in the comments) sowing an inning decrease from a high inning year is fair, projections won't show a pitcher reaching such high inning totals anyways just based on regression, if that makes sense.

51
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Jimmy Oz (not verified) :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 6:50pm

People keep posting that article everytime someone says 370, thinking that it means that RB overuse is a myth. Read these and let me know.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=328
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=330
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=483

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by BigCheese :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 10:52pm

But isn't there a bigger point here? Wehter the analysis is valid or entirely due to multiple endpoints, should be completely irrelevnat to Fantasy Football.

We can all agree that regresion to the mean, great luck, having a career year, etc. will account for much of the effect, but isn't that equally as relevant for proyecting wether you should be using a high draft pick on him? After all, we're only concerned with players atthe top end of the spectrum who had the over-use.

And you know what? I think if you use that as a guide you will have FAR more hits than misses, if nothing else because of regression to the mean plus overvalue by others.

I know it really helped me to several titles by taking MJD over Turner and trading Turner for Jackson plus a WR (Housh for Vjack IIRC) update in the one draft where the computer auto-picked for me because of lag issues preventing me form joining the draft room on time.

So yes, Chris Johnson is probably overrated. I'd rather have MJD or Ray Rice over Johnson.

- Alvaro

38
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by jebmak :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 12:08pm

While I'm not sure either way on "370". I find it interesting where he talks about using statistical trickery, he shows a graph to prove his point that is not centered around zero, but -0.5, and he does not bold the zero line.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by DaveRichters :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 11:26pm

Well it might not be bold, but the axis labels and tick marks are all at the zero line. The graph is centered around the approximate midpoint of the range of the data. Your implied accusation was subreption, there was clearly no intended trickery.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by RickD :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 3:00am

That's not "statistical trickery".

It may be visual trickery, but it's not statistical trickery.

20
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Biebs (not verified) :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 5:48pm

How could Thomas Jones be overrated? Isn't he expected to be the 3rd RB picked on the Jets.

15
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by sicks tea nein (not verified) :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 4:52pm

Jamaal Charles. I've seen him as a top 10 pick in mock drafts. Don't know if I would put him that high after a few (admittedly strong) games. We'll see what happens once teams start game planning with him as the focus.

16
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Brendan Scolari :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 4:52pm

Fitz
Knowshon Moreno
Jerome Harrison
Crabtree

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Temo :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 6:23pm

Most Overrated: Rodgers
Most Underrated: Brady
Wildcard: Redskins RB

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by pacfan12 (not verified) :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 12:11pm

lol lol lol 2 straight 4000yd years, but hes overrated,what a buffune.he will be the top qb for years to come.must be a queen fan or teddy bear fan.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by MatMan :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 4:09pm

If you're not even going to bother logging in to reply, you might not want to use the name "Pacfan" while defending the Pack's QB and then accusing somebody else of homerism at the same time. Buffunery!

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Bobman :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 5:30pm

I have often wondered if buffune had one f, two f's or three f's.....

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by RickD :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 3:01am

I would never draft a Shanahan RB. Haven't we learned?

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by sundown (not verified) :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 2:10pm

Learned what? That whoever he starts will somehow manage to get to 1,000 yards?

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by GoVikes (not verified) :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 8:18pm

My thoughts on overrated for 2010:

Steve Smith (NY) - if you take away the 2 or 3 monster games he had early in the season he was an average slot receiver who was not a redzone option
Mark Sanchez - mediocre QB, sophomore slump
Jerome Harrison - someone will burn a 3rd round pick or higher on him
Vince Young - people will be fooled by his record. Again.
Andre Johnson - Kubiak will be under more pressure to diversify the offense and will do so with Slaton and Daniels back. Plus, I think Matt Schaub is overrated.

I disagree on Rogers. Despite having no O-Line or real WR support he still did well the past two seasons. He deserves a first-round pick

26
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by commissionerleaf :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 9:03pm

Mark Sanchez? How is a totally undraftable player become overrated? No one was actually considering taking him in a fantasy league right? I agree amout Harrison and Smith, but Young could be decent if they take the training wheels off, and Johnson is a beast.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by GoVikes (not verified) :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 3:15pm

Let me explain my choices.

-I think there will be lots of people who will draft Sanchez on the belief he is on the upswing and will cash in big with him. I would not be surprised if he got picked in the 2nd round by someone. By that metric, I think he's ovverrated.

-Steve Smith of NY is totally overrated. He averaged 10-12 fantasy points/game last season depending on the scoring metric (I had him on my league-winning team) but the averages were skewed due to the monster showings he had early on (including that insane game he had against the Chiefs). He isn't bad and was a great waiver-wire pickup, but we're talking about overrated. He will be overreached in the draft, and high-yardage/low-TD wideouts are most pronee to dropoffs in the following season.

-I just don't buy Vince Young. He's not a consistent enough passer and still has shit-tastic performances that can kill a fantasy team (thank god I didn't use him in my championship game when he played the Chargers). But alas, he will be overreached for the same reason as Sanchez will.

-Rodgers' WR core was decent, but I think he made them look a lot better than they were. Greg Jennings is the only one with breakaway speed - the rest are Donald Driver and some dudes. Stick someone besides Rodgers in there and they'd all look average at best. If he had stud WR's like Brady or a more complete offense like Manning or Brees he'd be mentioned in their company fantasy-wise.

-Johnson is a beast. But his numbers this year were inflated because injuries on the offense made him Schaub's only real option for the second half of the season. I've seen him projected as a first-rounder, and I think he's just not worth it. If Schaub can't stay healthy again, or if Daniels, Walter and Slaton come back and produce like they should, he will see less touches. Houston's offense won't be "bomb it to Johnson and see what he does with it" next season.

Just my two cents. This is a fun category to mull over though.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Biebs (not verified) :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 3:30pm

Can you clarify? Did you write that Sanchez could be drafted in the 2nd round by someone?

Sanchez wouldn't be drafted in the 2nd round of an AFC East only draft, by anyone. I don't even understand. Sanchez might be a late-round flyer or a 9th or 10th round pick in a 2QB league (with 12+ teams) but in normal 12 team leagues/1QB Sanchez isn't going before the last few rounds.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by GoVikes (not verified) :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 3:23pm

Perhaps my personal experiences skew the whole thing. He got drafted by some dumbass in the 5th round of my league, and half of the dudes I've been speaking to coming back are raving about him.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by RickD :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 3:07am

a) The AFC had a total of 8 QBs this year, when all was said and done.

b) Mark Sanchez wasn't one of them.

It's hard to see how he'd be "overrated". Let's see...NFL.com has him listed as the 24th best QB for fantasy purposes. (OK, that's really a tie for 20th, but it hardly matters.)

29
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by stay firm (not verified) :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 9:37pm

". Despite having no O-Line or real WR support he still did well the past two seasons."

Huh? OL was pretty bad (though as discussed, he brought on many sacks by holding on forever), but the Packers have a talented and deep receiving corps.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by stay firm (not verified) :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 9:40pm

Also, Steve Smith had an extremely consistent season. Quite a bit less variance than most WRs really.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by GoVikes (not verified) :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 3:32pm

But he wasn't great - while he consistently scored around 10-11 points depending on how your leagues breaks down receiving yards, he rarely broke higher. And he just wasn't a primary target in redzone packages (don't know why), which really worries me. He was great in my league as we used a 3 WR 2 RB 1W/R roster setup - as a week 2 waiver wire pickup he gave me decent points at the #3 spot while everyone else was scrambling for depth. But all the talk I've heard this upcoming season is how he'll be like the other Steve Smith and can be a primary receiver, and that just won't happen unless the G-Men radically alter their offensive packages in the offseason and target him more on the goal line.

30
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Theo :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 9:40pm

I won my league last year but I have no idea who's overrated. I care about the underrated guys. That's how to win! Kapow!

If you want to make a list of overrated players, you first got to know how players are rated for next year.
I don't know!

The key is WR #2, RB #2 and WR #3. In that order. Then a TE who doesn't suck and a defense that gets a fluke from time to time. Hellow Ravens.

32
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by jonnyblazin :: Wed, 02/17/2010 - 10:27pm

I'm curious how hight Ray Rice will go, will people grab him really early? He was 2nd in RB yards because of 700 receiving yards, might he be the third back taken in some drafts?

35
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Alexander :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 12:41am

Chris Johnson- Will be #1, wont have the same monster season.
Ray Rice- Probably will drop in rank amongst running backs
Dangelo Williams- How is he ranked so high?

Luckie Pierre Thomas seems a bit underrated though.

37
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by coboney :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 9:12am

Williams is ranked high because he can produce - though he's got a decent chance to get injured. To clarify, when healthy last year he was still solid and you can expect to get him at the 1/2 turn (or at least last year you could) with a decent floor and a ceiling of #1.

I think Carson Palmer will be overrated, Eddie Royal, Most Arizona Cardnals, Meachem and other situational players who at this moment are pumped up in value.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by RickD :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 3:12am

When you pick #1, you know there's a good chance that you are not picking the player who will end up having the best fantasy season. What you want is a player who is likely to be one of the highest producers, and who is unlikely to kill your team with a bad season. This year I picked AP #1 and while he wasn't the best fantasy RB, he was pretty close.

If you believe in picking a RB #1, who would be picked ahead of Johnson? Maybe AP, if your league favors TDs more than most do. Who else is there? Ray Rice? DeAngelo Williams?

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Eddo :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 11:52am

Good point. The #1 overall pick in fantasy, much like real life, is as much about minimizing risk as it is getting the player who will end the season with the most fantasy points.

While going into this year, I figured Jones-Drew (good), Chris Johnson (good x 2), and Forte (bad) would wind up having better years than Peterson, I still would have drafted Peterson first overall, because I was sure he'd have a top-six RB year, while the others were bigger risks.

44
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by drobviousso :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 3:36pm

Vincent Jackson. I haven't seen enough of the Charges to know what it is that defenses figured out half way through the season, but he west from easy first round pick to #2 WR really fast half way through the year.

I'm going to say Mendenhall isn't overvalued as the Pitt roster currently stands. Tomlin likes a single feature back in an era when there are vanishingly few of them. If they happen to pick up a #2 back in the draft who can fight for time, maybe that would drop him, but I don't see it.

I guess I'll have to go against the grain and say I think Rodgers in about right to undervalued. I've been high on him since before Favre left GB, and he's done everything you could ever ask from both a fantasy and actual football POV.

50
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Bobman :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 5:51pm

Joe Addai.

Granted, no Colts RB is going to get a ton of attention with #18 in the backfield and less than 1,000 yards the year before, but Addai had a lot of TDs in 2009 that I think won't come his way in 2010. With Gonzalez healthy and matured younger WRs and the "new NFL paradigm" and the Colts' sketchy run blocking, I think they will start throwing to set up the passing game, and then pass to set up the next pass. Fewer runs for Addai (and more sharing with Brown, who should be healthier), and with Gonzo back, along with the fact that Clark/Garcon/Collie seem to have better YAC potential than Harrison and Wayne (I'm not talking just bombs, but over the middle and broken-field running through, around, and over defenders), I bet the receivers end up hoovering up a lot of those red zone TDs from 12-20 yards out before Addai can get the handoff from the 4.

If each of those receivers gets just one more TD than in 2009, and Gonzo gets five, that leaves nothing but table scraps for the RBs. (cue the chicken littles panicking and calling him a bust....)

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by zudly33 :: Thu, 02/18/2010 - 7:09pm

Reggie Wayne
Rashard Mendenhall
Ray Rice (in non PPR leagues)
Cedric Benson
Mario Manningham
Ahmad Bradshaw
Carson Palmer (every year)
Robert Meachem
LeSean McCoy
Donavan McNabb
Percy Harvin

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by dougied (not verified) :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 1:02pm

Some guys I will avoid this year

DeAngelo Williams

Cedric Benson

Larry Fitzgerald

Randy Moss (I was huge on him last year, but don't think he is going to do as well this year)

Wes Welker (hes going to be the Anthony Gonzalez this year... even when he's healthy enough to play, its not an injury that people come back from well the following year, and with how NE is secretive with injuries, there may be a lot of guesswork involved)

Any QB in the first round, I feel the depth at this position is there to wait at least the 3rd round almost every year. I targeted Culter and Warner 2 years ago, and last year Matt Schaub and Aaron Rogers.
On a side note, I like Tony Romo to step into the top 5 this year at a bargain price, and if McNabb gets shipped, I'll probably be buying low on Kolb (both of which pain me as a Redskins fan)

Any TE before the 5th round, possibly even the 6th due to the depth.

I agree with Steve Smith NYG and Mario Manningham picks as busts, but I like Hakeem Nicks to break out.

65
Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by sundown (not verified) :: Fri, 02/19/2010 - 2:21pm

A QB in the first round has never been a good idea, at least not in a standard 12-team league.

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by Rax Grissman (not verified) :: Sat, 02/20/2010 - 4:50pm

Jerome Harrison. He's not going to get over 30 carries a week very often. Plus, he did well versus KC, but he didn't have a particularly good YPC in the games against OAK and JAC. Combined with the likelyhood that he'll probably be closer to 10-15 carries/game than 30, and terrible play at QB (unless they trade for someone), I don't think he's worth a high round pick

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Re: Most Overrated Fantasy Player Into 2010?
by the chicken (not verified) :: Thu, 02/25/2010 - 5:18pm

mine would have to be in no particular order of course:

Fitz(for obvious reasons)
any Dallas Rb(with the 3 headed monster)
either Manning(neither one really put up numbers suporting where they were taken)
Brandon Jacobs(again)
Ray Rice(just doesnt get the goal line carries to get picked that high)
Darren Sproles(hasnt done nothing)
Mccoy(same reason)
Favre(no way he puts up those numbers ever again)
Vincent Jackson(looks like he'll be suspended for at least 2 games)
Philip Rivers(loosing to many weapons)

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