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02 Sep 2010
My first KUBIAK drafting experience
Had my draft last night, and this was my first time using KUBIAK. I paired it with the Excel program that someone posted in the Draft Strategy discussion. My league threw me a curve ball almost immediately. Most of the guys either covet the young, unproven players that they think could break out, or aren't aware of value-based drafting, leading them to pick a QB far too early. Because of this (and maybe because of the injury scare), MJD fell to me even though I had a late-middle pick. I snatched him up, hoping that Mendenhall would be there for my next pick, and the rest would be smooth sailing. Well, Mendenhall was gobbled up early (along with some of my other favorites) but I stuck to the board and snagged value with each pick.
I gotta say, one thing I noticed is that KUBIAK makes my decisions much more mechanical - and I reckon that's how it's supposed to be. It may have been less fun, though - I found myself passing up guys I was excited about in order to stick to the most value. Here's hoping it pays off once the season is over.
I'm wondering if I should trade MJD for Mendenhall straight up, however. From what I can tell, KUBIAK's projection on Mendenhall doesn't seem far-fetched in the least. And while both have similar projections, I can't help but think Mendenhall is the safer bet with his better risk rating. Would you do it?
22 replies , Last at 08 Sep 2010, 7:32pm by Yaguar
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
You should not trade MJD for Mendenhall straight up, simply because the general population believes that MJD is clearly better. Plus he was drafted higher in your league. You should be able to get a slightly upgrade at another position as well, maybe swap WRs with you getting the better one?
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
That's a good point. The person who drafted Mendenhall has already offered me Mendenhall and Knox for MJD and Breaston. According to ESPN (which we're using), I'd be getting a worse deal on both of those, but according to KUBIAK, I'd be getting the better option both times. (but I'd have to assume Knox is moving fast up the draft boards after being targeted so much in preseason.)
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
I have Breaston on two teams so far (thanks to KUBIAK) but even then I think I would want a more tangible upgrade. You have to remember that even with these knee injury rumors, MJD is considered a top 3 fantasy player. You have to use that to your advantage, even if your league does overvalue young up-and-comers. It's not like Mendenhall is a sure thing.
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
I find drafting with KUBIAK is a matter of gambling that your sleepers will still be around while you try to get good value elsewhere. Your MJD example is a good one. There are risky decisions like that all over the draft board where you're comparing KUBIAK ranks to ADP ranks.
With dynamic VBD, there's a lot of guesswork involved and just plain a lot of work, period. I find myself scrambling to keep track of everyone's rosters so I can make estimates on position needs. So it's a little mechanical but there's still a lot of work.
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
So you're not gonna post your final roster for us? :)
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
I also just did my first draft with KUBIAK last night and I feel pretty good about it (assuming KUBIAK is right). We start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1D, 1K, and 5 bench players. TDs are all worth 6pts (passing, rushing, & receiving).
1. Mendenhall
2. P. Manning
3. Steve Smith (NYG)
4. A. Gates
5. M. Forte
6. H. Ward
7. Ronnie Brown
8. Ravens D
9. J. Maclin
10. J. Knox
11. D. Akers
12. S. Breaston
13. K. Britt
14. Donald Brown
What do you guys think?
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
The real coup IMO is getting both Mendenhall and Manning, the #2 RB and #1 QB according to KUBIAK. With 3 starting WRs, though, you're a little thin at a position that requires some depth. Which position did you draft from?
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
8th out of 10. Snake draft so I had 8th, 13th, 28th, etc.
I used your VBD tool as well. Worked great! Thanks for sharing it.
I think I'm OK at WR. I drafted 6 of them. In fact, I drafted more WRs than anyone else in the draft last night. Smith, Ward, Knox, and Brit are all listed as #1 WR on their teams. Breaston and Maclin are pretty solid #2 WRs.
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
I had the #7 in my draft and ended up with a very similar looking squad. Since someone had asked earlier, here's how I ended up:
1. MJD
2. P. Manning
3. M. Forte
4. H. Ward
5. R. Williams
6. S. Moss
7. S. Breaston
8. D. Sproles
9. Z. Miller
10. Ravens D
11. L. Washington
12. E. Doucet
13. T. Choice
14. D. Akers
We start 2 WR and one RB/WR flex, which Ricky naturally gets. But I think Knox might be an upgrade from Breaston since my receivers are my weak spot. Still hesitant on letting go of MJD for Mendenhall, though.
Tally, thanks for sharing your Excel program. I used it as well, though I wasn't able to adjust the projected pick totals for each round on the fly very well. We had 90 seconds to pick, and most folks were right on top of who they wanted. It may be easier for me to stick with my printouts next year :)
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
Yeah, I've tried my best to make it as fast to use as possible. You should have a printout of each team and the starting positions that you can cross off and very quickly refer to in order to see what needs are. It does take a bit of work, though, I'll admit.
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
You took your defense & kicker too soon, and the 3rd round seems a little early for Smith, but other than that it's great. Great value with Forte, Ward, Brown in rds 5-7, and Maclin + Knox is good WR depth.
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
I'm in 12 team leagues, so it's harder to judge a 10 draft, but ... I like the middle picks, especially RBrown at 7, risk notwithstanding. Also like Britt pick. As long as your RBS stay healthy, WR3 may let you play match-ups there.
Always easier to be a critic, but better to draft a backup QB at 10 or 11 and wait on Akers? I steadfastly prefer picking K last and then juggling matchups.
Anyone tempting that you passed on specifically because of KUBIAK?
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
I've waited until the final three rounds and have been able to grab Akers and Chicago D/ST. Likewise, Forte and Ward can probably be taken a little bit later.
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
Had my draft tonight. This is my third year with Kubiac and I used tally's DVB spreadsheet.
Yahoo standard scoring. Start QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/TE/K/Def/6 bench.
Based on mock drafts/ADP, didn't expect 3 QB's in first round, 14 RB's in the first 2 rounds. League is mix of very experienced, some less seasoned owners. 10-teams
This is how my draft went:
5 1.05 Ray Rice
16 2.06 Randy Moss
25 3.05 Matt Forte - 17th RB off board. Had to bite.
36 4.06 Roddy White - 10th WR off board
45 5.05 Antonio Gates - Kicked off the TE run.
56 6.06 Hines Ward - 17th WR off the board. Had to bite.
65 7.05 Ricky Williams - 28th RB off board
76 8.06 Donald Brown - 32nd RB off board. Needed RB depth.
85 9.05 McNabb - Had to bite before second QB run began
96 10.06 Steve Breaston - #37 WR off board.
105 11.05 Ahmad Bradshaw - #38 RB off board
116 12.06 Chicago - #8 Def off board
125 13.05 David Garrard - #14 QB off board
136 14.06 Matt Prater - #7 kicker off board
Felt I was always reaching relative to ADP, was derided for few picks (Forte, Ward, McNabb, Garrard) but all picks had good value relative to Kubiac's ranking.
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
I think it's okay to reach about half a round to a round before ADP but not more. Forte probably would have been available a little later. Surprised Roddy White was still available at 36--he's usually 4th or 5th WR off the board. I wonder which QBs were available at 3.05. Brady/Schaub would have been good value there.
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
12 team, PPR. Keeper league after third round. Had my draft last night, Rice, Charles, Forsett and Knox were keepers for the previous round I got them last year. Free agent pick-ups counted as 10th round picks. We start 2 RB, 3 WR and a spot for WR/TE.
Seven players are in the KUBIAK top 25 for my scoring method. And I can start all 7. Although we'll see if I end up starting Royal over Knox or Maclin.
1. Andre Johnson
2. Peyton
3. Gates
4. Welker
5. Ray Rice
6. Maclin
7. Charles
8. Forsett
9. Knox
10. Donald Brown
11. Eddie Royal
12. Mike Williams (TB)
13. Keiland Williams (somebody took Huggins one pick before me)
14. Bears D
15. Succop
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
That is a brutal squad, holy cow.
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
Draft over. We may be the only 9 team league in the country so adjust accordingly. Standard CBS league:
1.4 = R.Rice
2.15 = R.Wayne (target was Mendenhall but taken by Steelers fan 2.13)
3.22 = S.Jackson (love this, considered him @ 2.15)
4.33 = D.Jackson (nice)
5.40 = S.Smith (NYG)
6.51 = T.Gonzalez (bit of a reach. plan was Gates @4.33 or Clark @ 5.40, but went 4/5 picks earlier). Then 6.48-50 were V.Davis, Shaincoe, Witten so had to bite. Finley and Celek went in the next 3 picks. Other TE plan was ZMiller/Cooley later and it turn out I may not have gotten them either, so I was happpy i guess.
7.58 = M.Forte (I think I could've waited, but no one else of value on the board so...)
8.69 = B.Wells
9.76 = D.McNabb (targeted this. Everyone else had QB1 early)
10.87 = K.Kolb (was fine to take Garrod later, but Kolb was there and no WR I liked here)
11.94 = S.Breaston
12.105 = D.Akers
13.112 = S.Moss
14.123 = Bears
Thoughts?
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
Looks great, although I'm used to 10 team draft. But still you got 2 top RB's and 2 top WR's. Great depth at RB and great #3 WR. I think the QB tandem is excellent and playing starting matchups should help get the most out of them. K and D are also great value.
I think if you could've got Hines Ward at 6.51 and got Zach Miller at 11.94 then it would have been even better WR's but might be unnecessary depth at WR. But it sounds like your league took TE's much much earlier than expected so you probably made the best of the situation.
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
The common choice amongst the rosters posted here (except 1)is Steve Breaston. I have done several mocks for 12 team leagues, and I seem to get Breaston every time as well in either the 10th or 11th round. This seems like quite a bonus because with my settings in Kubiak, he is about a 7th round value.
This seems odd to me that he is so consistently available. It also seems odd that a number 2 receiver for a team that has a lousy QB ranks higher in Kubiak than the WR1 for better teams.
Does this resonate with you all, or should I just happily take advantage of the supposed windfall - especially one that comes pretty late in the draft?
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
14 team .5 PPR QB/2RB/3WR
QB: Donovan, (Big Ben)
RB: Rice, Mendenhall, (Washington, Sproles, McFadden, F.Taylor)
WR: Ward, Wallace, Murphy (SRice)
TE: Gates! / D: CHI / K: Gould (Bears play Lions week 1)
RB is completely dry, with Kevin Faulk being the top one out there. I'm really hoping I can get a trade done before the Steelers go on a bye week 5.
Draft recap: (early run on QB, WR crazy in the mids, missed on all of mine)
5 Ray Rice, Bal RB
24 Rashard Mendenhall, Pit RB
33 Antonio Gates, SD TE
52 Hines Ward, Pit WR
61 Mike Wallace, Pit WR
80 Donovan McNabb, Was QB
89 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB
108 Sidney Rice*, Min WR
117 Darren Sproles, SD RB
136 Leon Washington, Sea RB
145 Darren McFadden, Oak RB
164 Fred Taylor, NE RB
173 Bears D/ST, Chi D/ST
192 Jason Avant, Phi WR <--cut for louis murphy
201 Robbie Gould, Chi K
Re: My first KUBIAK drafting experience
I think Gates was a mistake, and even at 108, Rice was a mistake. But you got some unbelievable value picks elsewhere. Mendenhall at 24 is like Christmas.
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