Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Sep 2012

New and in need of some help

Hello all, I'm a newb looking for help with my draft tomorrow.
So, I've generated my Kubiak according to my league settings and was wondering when I draft my players, should I draft them based on their Dynamic Fantasy points projection or Fantasy Points over baseline??

Thanks a bunch,

Posted by: SteelFire on 02 Sep 2012

3 replies , Last at 03 Sep 2012, 10:59am by SteelFire

Re: New and in need of some help
by nibiyabi :: Sun, 09/02/2012 - 4:24pm

FPOB is more important (which is why the default sorting prioritizes it). Imagine you have a league which grants kickers 10 points per field goal. Just because the top 20 scorers or so would all be kickers doesn't mean they need to fly off the board early. Let's say that you're in a 10-team league. The end-of-year points for the top 10 kickers in this league might look like this:

1. 580
2. 576
3. 573
4. 570
5. 568
6. 566
7. 565
8. 564
9. 562
10. 561

Even though the top non-kicker might only score 250 or so, would it really matter which of those 10 kickers you ended up getting? Imagine the top 10 QBs look like this:

1. 255
2. 245
3. 215
4. 213
5. 199
6. 179
7. 174
8. 164
9. 160
10. 157

Even though they are scoring much less than the kickers, the difference between #1 and #10 is huge by comparison. Getting a top QB in this league would be much more important than getting a top kicker.

Re: New and in need of some help
by Zac :: Sun, 09/02/2012 - 7:02pm

Mark, nibyabi is right. I wish I could find you a good resource that explains Value Based Drafting, but everything I've googled seems subpar for explanation purposes. Let's try http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm (that's from 2005 so the players given in examples may not make sense to you). Read that at least up to where he lists the 7 step solution. KUBIAK does the math of those steps for you so you don't have to worry about all the calculations.

The next step is understanding that you shouldn't blindly take the highest player available when your pick is up, but I don't know if we'll have time to get to that. Read through http://www.footballoutsiders.com/discussion/snake-draft-strategy-using-k... and http://www.footballoutsiders.com/discussion/wr-rankings and see if those make sense to you.

Re: New and in need of some help
by SteelFire :: Mon, 09/03/2012 - 10:59am

Thanks for the replies. It definitely helps me out a lot!
I really appreciate it.

Good luck to all this year,

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