Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

11 Jul 2012

Oddities/curiosities from my first 2012 KUBIAK using my league's scoring system:

KUBIAK seems to be way down on Matt Stafford in my league's scoring system, compared to what others seem to expect. Other guys it is down on: Nicks, Rivers, Britt, Schaub, Crabtree, Boldin, Felix Jones

Guys it is optimistic about in my league's scoring system: Brees (in a big way, particularly considering all the uncertainty in New Orleans this season), Eli, Matt Ryan, Trent Richardson, Shonn Greene, Peyton (under the circumstances), Andy Dalton.

I found all of these interesting.

Posted by: bird jam on 11 Jul 2012

8 replies , Last at 04 Oct 2012, 6:31pm by bkjsun

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Oddities/curiosities from my first 2012
by nkowal :: Wed, 07/11/2012 - 4:52pm

Lots of these will pop up (and I'm sure I will start some), so it's always good to hear feedback from others. It's going to vary based on scoring system, so keep that in mind as we might be talking about different rankings. Is there something unique about your scoring system? That might help understand.

A few (okay, a lot) of comments on whether I agree/disagree with your assessment - and solely my opinion:

Stafford you can see the numbers are coming from an increase in INTs and decrease in TDs (not posting specific #s since that is looked down upon, but general discussion is okay). It's worth noting - last year Kubiak was significantly low on Stafford as well. I adjusted thier projection for my drafts and made it more optimisitc.

Rivers - I actually understand this downgrade as I'm not high on him this year.

Nicks - Didn't think it was that down on him.

Britt - injury risk may be downgrading him, but he seemed about where I've seen him go in mocks.

Schaub - I actually thought he was about right. Though I do not agree with his Risk being Green.

Crabtree/Boldin - wasn't really looking at either of these guys, as I'm not that high on them.

Felix Jones - Murray proabbly getting most of the workload

Brees - did not consider it out of the ordinary at all. That's where he should be. Note that his Risk level is Yellow, which is bumping him down a bit. I can't remember for sure, but I'd bet he's been Green in past years.

Eli - It's not high going off last year, but the question is whether he can repeat. This one made me a little nervous.

Richardson - that's where he is being drafted as well, so I didn't find it odd.

Greene - Kubiak was high on him last year as well (to some owners detriment). I'm not a big believer in his talent, so I've always avoided.

Peyton Manning - It's a fair projection if he's healthy. Note that his Risk rating is Red, so he's being bumped down for that.

Dalton - Did not find this rank odd.

2
Re: Oddities/curiosities
by abernethyj :: Wed, 07/11/2012 - 7:27pm

Aaron has added notes for some players if you mouseover their names. Nicks is one of those players (I found this out because I thought the system ranked him surprisingly low as well). Not sure if it's frowned upon to share the specific note or not, but you should be able to see it in your version.

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Re: Oddities/curiosities
by bird jam :: Thu, 07/12/2012 - 10:46am

Yeah, I saw that after I posted this too.

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Re: Oddities/curiosities
by Aaron Schatz :: Thu, 07/12/2012 - 10:56am

You can share the notes. They aren't secrets, they are notes about injuries and suspensions.

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Re: Oddities/curiosities 2012 KUBIAK using my league's scoring
by bird jam :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 2:59pm

Midseason update oddities:

KUBIAK really seems to love Lesean McCoy and Donald Brown. Shady, I can understand (although he has underwhelmed thus far) but what's the story with Brown?

I have both on my team and am happy to see them so high, but Brown is a head-scratcher (27th overall player in my league's scoring system).

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Re: Oddities/curiosities 2012 KUBIAK using my league's scoring
by Sifter :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 4:01pm

Just updating my sheets and it seems like ALL the Colts have seen KUBIAK boosts: Luck, Wayne, even Vinatieri - so it's probably just a byproduct of being a team that will be better than DVOA originally thought. Also, check the playoff adjustments, I think the Colts have one of the higher adjustments due to playing Titans and Chiefs in Wks 14 and 16.

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Re: Oddities/curiosities 2012 KUBIAK using my league's scoring
by damcknight :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 5:51pm

The Colts are one of the only 2 teams to have had a bye so far. The Steelers have had a similar bump. For example, with my scoring Roethlisberger is rated as a top 5 QB.

When a player is on bye, you can substitute in replacement level talent, so you never actually score zero points. At the beginning of the season, every player has one bye, so there is no need to make an adjustment. But at this point in the season, the Colts and the Steelers will be overvalued, since all other players will effectively score zero points (and not replacement level points) for one week.

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Re: Oddities/curiosities 2012 KUBIAK using my league's scoring
by bkjsun :: Thu, 10/04/2012 - 6:31pm

Well there's also the fact that the Colts have already had their bye week.

EDIT: already been said, but I would do points per game when comparing players to adjust for this.

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