Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

04 Mar 2010

Open Free Agency Prediction Thread

We're not including it in this year's Scramble, but go ahead and make your predictions about where unrestricted (and restricted) free agents will go in here.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 04 Mar 2010

18 replies , Last at 05 Mar 2010, 8:35pm by PatsFan

1
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by ShaneS (not verified) :: Thu, 03/04/2010 - 7:31pm

The Bears sign -everybody- by noon tomorrow.

By midnight tomorrow, the team is up for sale.

The population of Illinois is halved by Sunday.

2
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by FooBarFooFoo (not verified) :: Thu, 03/04/2010 - 7:46pm

There will be less-than-normal spending because the owners have a gentlemen's agreement in place to save money, act as a unity against the NFLPA, and not agressively go after each other teams players, most notably RFAs.

There will be little-to-no going after other people's RFAs for the same reason. I think some RFAs would be very interesting for me even if tendered at 1st+3rd level. This can still be a good deal considering draft is a coin flip and you get a developed player. You know what you get, these are young players, you can get a good deal on the price, and you either hurt the other team by having them lose a good player or by making them spend more money _on a long-term deal_.

I think especially owners like Bowlen, Kraft won't spend big, and most likely even guys like Jones and Snyder.

Though I understand it needs only one desperate GM to spend for a guy like Peppers.

The only way to spend big is with guaranteed money in 2010, and that money is gone instantly and cannot be recovered even if the player gets suspended.

3
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by sundown (not verified) :: Thu, 03/04/2010 - 8:08pm

Totally agree with you on established players being worth a first and a third...but it seems nobody in the league has the guts for that. They treat draft picks as sure things and totally overvalue lower-round picks. Losing a first is something to think long and hard about, but unless you hit the lottery, a third rounder is never going to be a huge part of your team.

4
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by jbrown (not verified) :: Thu, 03/04/2010 - 8:58pm

Does anyone else expect a team like the Redskins to take advantage of the uncapped year and stuff like 90% of a huge contract for Peppers into 2010?

Someone has to pick up Atogwe, and maybe even Kirk Morrison.

I'm also curious to see if teams deliberately avoid free agents from teams like NO & Indy so that they won't be able to sign any free agents themselves. Not like the Colts were going to be big spenders, but still could be interesting...

12
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by Dean :: Fri, 03/05/2010 - 2:53pm

Indy only had 2 UFAs. One was Gary Brackett, who they just resigned. The other was their kicker, who is retiring. So they won't be allowed to sign anybody. Not that they are typically big players in the free agent market regardless.

5
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by mjb :: Thu, 03/04/2010 - 9:34pm

By looking at the Restricted Free Agents I would not be surprised to see these guys change teams:

QB-Troy Smith, Bal. would only cost a 5th round pick, I would assume that the Browns are taking a look at him. He isn't any worse then the players already on their roster at QB, and he was a Heisman Trophy winner at Ohio State.

LB-Keith Ellison, Buf. I am not sure he would fit the 3-4 scheme the Bills want to run next season, and could be had for just a 6th round pick. Could sign with the Giants, Bears, or Colts (if the Colts lose a restricted free agent).

LB-Kirk Morrison, Oak. why we was tendered for just a third round pick is beyond me, I would assume that he would be manning the MIKE spot for the Giants, or even the 49ers.

WR-Jason Avant, Phi. even though I think the second round price tag would be prohibitive to him changing teams, I also think it is likely that the Browns or the Ravens could sign him. Browns because Heckert drafted him, and the Ravens because they need WRs and he would be cheaper to to get than Brandon Marshall.

6
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by bill (not verified) :: Thu, 03/04/2010 - 9:40pm

the eagles get de peppers and fs rolle .sb in 2010/11

7
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by bill (not verified) :: Thu, 03/04/2010 - 9:42pm

the eagles get de peppers plus fs rolle......super bowl in 2010/11 !!!

8
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by someguy (not verified) :: Thu, 03/04/2010 - 11:45pm

http://blogs.chron.com/fantasyfootball/2010/03/sources_believe_julius_pe...
LZ called it last year with Haynesworth, so it looks like Peppers is heading to the Redskins.

10
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by FooBarFooFoo (not verified) :: Fri, 03/05/2010 - 3:52am

RE last year: If you pick "Redskins will land biggest FA out there", you used to be right half the time. That's a ridiculous prediction ...

11
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by Mr Shush :: Fri, 03/05/2010 - 8:14am

Zierlein's well connected (son of a long time NFL line coach) and knows his stuff. He's right a lot more often than he's wrong.

Peppers: Washington (though New England wouldn't surprise me in the slightest either)
Rolle: Washington
Robinson: Washington
Kampman: Philly

17
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by jbrown (not verified) :: Fri, 03/05/2010 - 3:22pm

On top of that Lance got bashed big time for saying that Haynesworth would go to the Redskins before anyone else did. It was unbelievable how many people were trolling around the Chron Blogs just to say how much of an idiot Lance was (until he was proved right of course), I really thought he kicked someone's dog or something...so no, it wasn't an easy guess at all, all redskins FA jokes aside

9
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by socctty :: Fri, 03/05/2010 - 12:44am

CHI gets Kampman

13
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by Dean :: Fri, 03/05/2010 - 2:55pm

Dansby to Miami
Kampmann to Philly
Peppers to Chicago (looks like a done deal)

Atogwe to Philly eventually.

Clifton to Washington.

14
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by tuluse :: Fri, 03/05/2010 - 3:12pm

Peppers to Chicago (looks like a done deal)

link?

15
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by davek (not verified) :: Fri, 03/05/2010 - 3:21pm

chester taylor signed by bears and peppers imminent:

http://www.suntimes.com/index.html

He's already taken a physical and dollar numbers are already being reported.

16
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by davek (not verified) :: Fri, 03/05/2010 - 3:22pm
18
Re: Open Free Agency Prediction Thread
by PatsFan :: Fri, 03/05/2010 - 8:35pm
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