Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Jul 2013

Outrageous Auction Prices?

Just downloaded the Kubiak 2013 spreadsheet after buying and loving the 2013 almanac. I'm in a Yahoo auction league and I'm really confused by the projected auction prices Kubiak is giving me.

I made the modifications to the settings, including making the roster sizes 14 players (8 starters + 6 bench spots) and increasing the draft budget to $200.

KUBIAK is giving me extremely high recommended prices. For instance, the top player, Adrian Peterson is on Yahoo recommended to be about $64. But KUBIAK is giving me a draft price for AP of $91.75!

Obviously, this cannot be correct, as no player is worth 46% of a draft budget.

Is anyone else having this same problem, or am I doing something incorrectly with my settings?

Posted by: mossman414 on 29 Jul 2013

10 replies , Last at 02 Aug 2013, 4:28pm by Aaron Schatz

1
Re: Outrageous Auction Prices?
by mossman414 :: Mon, 07/29/2013 - 7:47pm

As an update, apparently I accidentally listed 4 bench spots instead of 6. When I switched it to 6 bench spots, AP became a much more reasonable $68.

2
Re: Outrageous Auction Prices?
by bird jam :: Tue, 07/30/2013 - 3:33pm

KUBIAK is not telling you how much to spend on each player. It is telling you the expected value they will provide you. It is up to you to decide how much to spend, based on how your auction is going, how much others are bidding, etc.

I just ran the latest update with my league settings (which are similar to yours,) and the top players are listed in the upper eighties. This is normal for KUBIAK.

3
Re: Outrageous Auction Prices?
by alien1rock :: Wed, 07/31/2013 - 1:50pm

How does everyone typically translate the Kubiak values into a strategy? Since I'm numbers-oriented, I usually come up with some discounts on the Kubiak values. Maybe something like 80% for the top-10 players, 75% for the next 50, and 70% after that. Then I'll use those adjusted values fairly strictly, drafting players that came in at that price or lower, and let the chips fall where they may. I'll test it in some mock drafts to see how I like the results, and maybe adjust the discount factors accordingly.

4
Re: Outrageous Auction Prices?
by jayhawkco :: Wed, 07/31/2013 - 3:02pm

My auction strategy is normally buy three studs early and then sit back and wait for value. So, right away I'll bid up to 75% of any stud, then once I have my three, I only bid up to 50% til the end.

Chris

7
Re: Outrageous Auction Prices?
by mossman414 :: Thu, 08/01/2013 - 4:54pm

Based on the projected values I'm getting out of KUBIAK, there is no way I could land any stud player (~top 10) for 75% of their projected value. I'd be outbid on every one. Perhaps we're getting different projections based on different league setups.

8
Re: Outrageous Auction Prices?
by jayhawkco :: Thu, 08/01/2013 - 11:19pm

I set the aggressiveness to 5 and then take 75%. So, for instance, Calvin is $64 in my set up. I'll probably pick him up for $45 or so.

Chris

5
Re: Outrageous Auction Prices?
by bird jam :: Thu, 08/01/2013 - 10:31am

My league's auctions move pretty fast and there is generally not a lot of time to sit and think about how the values are changing on the fly. So I go in with a cheat sheet copied and pasted from the latest KUBIAK and mark some guys that I expect to be undervalued in my league based on owner history and how the prices usually pan out at each position.

I also have a list of guys I am staying away from that is a combination of KUBIAK projections and my own hunches about guys.

I used to try to make it as precise and scientific as possible, but found that things never went according to my plan so now I have more of a general strategy going in.

6
Re: Outrageous Auction Prices?
by mossman414 :: Thu, 08/01/2013 - 1:14pm

This will be my first season using KUBIAK, but in years past I have come up with my own (less sophisticated) price projections, then used a strategy similar to Jayhawkco. I'll target 2-3 studs who I see as being undervauled, then pay fair market value for them. Then spend the rest of my budget on guys who I think are significantly undervalued.

bird jam, I'm curious about the fact that your upper-echelon players are projected at a value in the upper $80's since we seem to use similar stats and roster sizes. How many teams are in your league? My KUBIAK projects the top 2 players at $73/$70 in a 10 team league and $77/$73 in a 12 team league. Perhaps you have more teams in your league?

9
Re: Outrageous Auction Prices?
by bird jam :: Fri, 08/02/2013 - 10:22am

We have 12 teams, but historically we have had aggressive bidding for the top players leading to a lot of $1 players at the end of the auction. I know that those anecdotal factors shouldn't really affect the KUBIAK projections though (although in real life we frequently have players topping out in the $90s), so I don't know why my league's ceiling would be much higher than yours. 14-man rosters, 12 teams = 168 players. Each team has $200 at the auction.

10
Re: Outrageous Auction Prices?
by Aaron Schatz :: Fri, 08/02/2013 - 4:28pm

Honestly, the history of how auctions go in your specific league is much more important than the values our spreadsheet gives. That's why it can't be completely accurate, even if every single projection was 100 percent perfect.