Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

31 Aug 2011

Packers prediction

Without wanting to divulge too much of what FOA 2011 writes about the Packers, I can't come up with any reasonable explanation for why they're predicted to win LESS games than last year. They're cited in the injuries-regress-to-the-mean portion of the pregame show as a team probable to improve based simply on starters returning from injury, and the average opponent DVOA is only slightly higher than that of the Steelers, whose easy schedule seems to be one of the cornerstones of their prediction. In fact, the Packers's chapter itself makes only one mention of their 2011 outlook, saying: "No contender in the league accomplished more by standing still during the lockout than the Packers. They are likely to see more wins simply by virtue of being a 10-6 team that still underperformed its DVOA rating and Pythagorean record."

Soooo...why is the projection for less than that? Does anyone have a better guess than "Cullen Jenkins was worth three wins on his own"?

Posted by: Fion on 31 Aug 2011

2 replies , Last at 01 Sep 2011, 3:41am by Fion

Re: Packers prediction
by Vincent Verhei :: Wed, 08/31/2011 - 8:02pm

The biggest reason is that the projection system always has teams clustered toward the middle then they end up in real life. 9.4 wins may not sound like a high projection, but the only NFC teams with higher projections are NO and PHI. If I left the numbers out of it and just said "The Packers will battle the Saints for the No. 2 seed behind the Eagles," would that make more sense? Because that's what we're projecting.

Re: Packers prediction
by Fion :: Thu, 09/01/2011 - 3:41am

I realize that, and frankly, I was more surprised by how high the Steelers projection was than how low any of the others were, since I've come to expect that. Still, it seems strange reconciling the verbal description of "this team stands to improve on its previous season" with a numerical prediction stating, in effect, the opposite.

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