31 Aug 2011
Without wanting to divulge too much of what FOA 2011 writes about the Packers, I can't come up with any reasonable explanation for why they're predicted to win LESS games than last year. They're cited in the injuries-regress-to-the-mean portion of the pregame show as a team probable to improve based simply on starters returning from injury, and the average opponent DVOA is only slightly higher than that of the Steelers, whose easy schedule seems to be one of the cornerstones of their prediction. In fact, the Packers's chapter itself makes only one mention of their 2011 outlook, saying: "No contender in the league accomplished more by standing still during the lockout than the Packers. They are likely to see more wins simply by virtue of being a 10-6 team that still underperformed its DVOA rating and Pythagorean record."
Soooo...why is the projection for less than that? Does anyone have a better guess than "Cullen Jenkins was worth three wins on his own"?
2 replies , Last at 01 Sep 2011, 3:41am by Fion