Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

22 Aug 2009

Player improvment or decline question

I am a little confused on how to use the projections. In the Quaterback section it states not to read into the projected numbers as much as it is important to notice if a player is projected to improve or decline. This is my dilema...do I take Brees (the top QB, after adj KUBIAK w/my leagues settings), whom according to FOA is lower across the board (yds, tds, dvoa, etc., except for fumbles)...or someone like Bulger (21st on my QB list), but expectations for C%, yds, tds, dvoa, etc. are higher then last yr?

Also, should I be staying away from players with a Red Risk Var., since they are sure to fall short of projected numbers for whatever reason(s), no matter how high they rated/projected? For example, go after LT or D.Williams instead of MJD, A.Peterson, Forte, etc.

Thanks for the help.

Posted by: Raine05 on 22 Aug 2009

1 reply , Last at 23 Aug 2009, 11:57pm by Bill Barnwell

Re: Player improvment or decline question
by Bill Barnwell :: Sun, 08/23/2009 - 11:57pm

Well, it's all relative. I would bump Brees a little lower on draft boards and push Bulger up a bit, but the two shant meet.

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