Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

09 Aug 2013

Positional Drop Off

My league plays 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, FLEX (WR/TE), 1 D & 1 K. We have 10 teams a bench of 6. Everyone drafts a backup QB, most draft a backup D and a few even draft an extra K.

If load my setting and generate the spreadsheet, there is one position I only see 12 players by the time I see the theoretical 140 players we will draft.

What this tells me is there is a large drop off in quality this position. There is a wider gap in quality between the 12th to 13th in this position than the 46th to 47th in another position.

With such a shortage of quality replacements, is it worth it to say I need 2 of this position to put an emphasis on this position?

I know KUBIAK is just a tool and you need to be smarter than the tool you are using. The best way to learn what a tool can do is to talk to other folks who use it. I look forward to your input.


Posted by: BEEF on 09 Aug 2013

1 reply , Last at 12 Aug 2013, 11:19am by mcbrown

Re: Positional Drop Off
by mcbrown :: Mon, 08/12/2013 - 11:19am

No, it is actually telling you the opposite - that there is less of a drop off in quality. Without knowing the particulars of your scoring setup, you might generically interpret something like this as "don't bother drafting a backup at this position, because there should be decent options on the waiver wire should you need them, and there are better uses of the roster slot." Kubiak can't really account for other players behaving suboptimally, but you shouldn't worry too much about it either.

In shallower leagues you are generally not rewarded for carrying a backup QB. In a 10 person league, even if everyone but you carries 2 QBs, that leaves up to 13 options on the wire in any given week, depending on bye schedules. Among those 13 QBs, there is probably someone reasonably competent facing a sub-par defense. That's all you need to get through a bye week. Why waste a whole roster spot on it?

From a strategic perspective, if your league mates carry too many QBs/Ds/Ks they are, on average, not carrying as many RBs and WRs as they should. In these kinds of leagues I am usually happy to either (a) do what the market is telling me to do (load up on RB and WR) and take my chances on being able to trade from a position of strength should the need/opportunity arise later in the season, or (b) use the extra roster spots for more high risk/high reward players than I would otherwise draft.

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