Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

17 Dec 2010

Pre-Draft Projections vs. Regular Season Actual

To the FO guys,

I'd like to see a comparison of the individual preseason projections vs actual outcomes. Where was Kubiak way off? How did Kubiak player projections fare compared to projections made by other experts (ESPN, yahoo, etc.)?

Kubiak is a fantastic draft tool and I will be purchasing next year, however, it is only as good as the pre-season projections it uses as inputs. It'd be useful to know, injuries aside, how accurate the projections were.

Thanks Guys!!

Posted by: fengld83 on 17 Dec 2010

5 replies , Last at 03 Sep 2011, 1:44pm by Ben_Draper

Re: Pre-Draft Projections vs. Regular Season Actual
by ratay1 :: Mon, 12/27/2010 - 12:35pm


my first season as a subscriber, so not sure if this is something you've done in the past, aaron...but would encourage you to do so.

notwithstanding the bets many placed on forte, ward & mendenhall, it would be good to see how those KUBIAK projections stack up to those players' actual stats.

that said, i think it would be good for you to take a victory lap on a few players you were correct on, too...reminding folks of KUBIAK's views on bowe, mathews, nicks, etc.

and to remind folks that, no matter what happens in the run up to a FF draft, it's always vitally important to be diligent on the waiver wire...the emergence of the hillises and vicks of the world were unpredictable at the time these projections were run...but were largely players that were rostered on teams playing for the championships in their leagues.

Re: Pre-Draft Projections vs. Regular Season Actual
by DSchexnaydre :: Sun, 01/23/2011 - 2:38pm

I'd like to see a side-by-side comparison of each player and their actual production, versus the projected production. As a paying customer (for more than one season) I think this is something we should be entitled to.

Re: Pre-Draft Projections vs. Regular Season Actual
by tally :: Wed, 01/26/2011 - 2:57pm

Really? *Looks at the terms of purchase.* Nope. Pretty sure that's not something that was offered.

Besides, you already have all the information to make such a comparison yourself.

Re: Pre-Draft Projections vs. Regular Season Actual
by DSchexnaydre :: Sat, 07/09/2011 - 12:04pm

Nobody said it was part of the purchase agreement. Nobody said it was offered and then not produced. I was given what I paid for, and I am satisfied.

However, next month when I'm deciding whether I should buy Kubiak again, this is something that would help me make my decision. If FO believes in their product, why not evaluate it at the end of every year?

Re: Pre-Draft Projections vs. Regular Season Actual
by Ben_Draper :: Sat, 09/03/2011 - 1:44pm

Refraining from the hyperbolic "entitlement" debate, has anyone done the comparison who could share their results?

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