Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

20 Aug 2010

Pre-Draft Trade Offer

Need the brain power of Football Outsider commentors...

I was offered a pre-draft trade that I just can't make my mind up on.

Trade: My 1st (#1 pick in the draft) and 7th (#73) pick for his 3rd (#27), 4th (#46), 5th (#51), 6th (#63) round picks. (STANDARD SNAKE DRAFT - and to satisfy a full roster he would get my final 4 rounds).

I would essentially be giving up Chris Johnson and sit out action until the 24th pick. Then getting pick, pick, space, pick for rounds 3 through 6.

Any discussion would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

Posted by: bwn1134 on 20 Aug 2010

2 replies , Last at 26 Aug 2010, 4:48am by socctty

Re: Pre-Draft Trade Offer
by Dan :: Fri, 08/20/2010 - 1:29pm

You can use Average Auction Values as your draft value chart. The first pick costs $51 in an auction, the 73rd pick costs $10, plus you're giving up your last two (not four) picks worth $1 each, so you're giving up $63 worth of value. But his 3rd-6th rounders are worth $25 + $18 + $16 + $13 = $72, so you're getting back more value than you're giving up, which suggests that you should go for it.

If you have KUBIAK, you could also use its auction values to calculate the same thing. Sort the players by auction price for your league format, find the prices of the 1st, 27th, 46th, 51st, 63rd, and 73rd players, and see if the four you're getting add up to more than the two you're giving up plus $2 (for your last two picks).

If you make the trade, I'd recommend trying to get a top QB and TE, like Manning at #24 and Gates/Clark at #46 if they're available, since you don't want to just end up with strong RBs and WRs on your bench.

Re: Pre-Draft Trade Offer
by socctty :: Thu, 08/26/2010 - 4:48am

Dan's suggestion of auction values is brilliant: it puts a relative value on each pick

In a related manner, I'd suggest using KUBIAK to find what the 1st and 73rd player (and whatever your last two picks) are worth in Fantasy Points Over Baseline and compare them to the 27th, 46th, 51st, and 63rd picks. Whichever ends up higher is the one you should go with. Of course, there's the possibility you don't have KUBIAK, and there's the caveat that draft picks won't go in order that KUBIAK ranks them.

I think Dan's suggestion is probably best. It reflects what a market thinks about the value of individual picks - not players, as KUBIAK does. The players are as of yet unknown; it is the picks themselves you are trying to assess the value of, and that's what the auction values provide you.

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