Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

06 Aug 2009

Pre-season trading

This is for a keeper-auction league. This year, we are now allowed to make off-season trades during a short period in early August. We only bid on starters, and start a large lineup - 2QB 3RB 1 RB/WR 4WR 1 WR/TE 1 TE 2K 3IDP, 6 pts all TDs, no PPR, yardage slightly favors Rec over Rush. There is a $200 cap. Players are kept from one year to the next at $3 more than the previous year's price up to a maximum of five players.

My keepers right now stand at: Brady $22, MJD $10, Slaton $4, Portis $26, and (unsure on the last) D Mason $4 (not the sexiest pick, but solid and cheap).

I'm not positive I can do all of these options, but which team looks the best heading in. Remember, it's not entirely about the FP over baseline, there's also the factor of how much money I have left for the auction.

Team 1: Brady, MJD, Slaton, Portis, D Mason ($66)

Team 2: Big Ben, MJD, Slaton, Portis, Gore ($64)

Team 3: Big Ben, MJD, Slaton, Portis, Boldin ($54)

Team 4: Big Ben, MJD, Slaton, Gore, D Mason ($42)

Team 5: MJD, Slaton, Portis, Gore, Boldin ($69)

Team 6: Big Ben, MJD, Slaton, Gore, Moss ($65)

Team 7: Brady, MJD, Slaton, V Jackson, D Mason ($44)

Team 1 is standing pat. Teams 6 & 7 aren't sure things that I can get them, but possibilities I've explored (specifically Jackson and Moss). Teams 2-5 I can definitely get.

My thoughts:
I think team 1 is not a bad place to be. Kubiak hasn't been big on Portis for a couple years, but he's outperformed it. Will he again?
Team 7 is Portis for Jackson, probably straight up. Kubiak favors me, conventional wisdom favors him; it is cheaper.
Team 6 would be a 3-team deal, and I know one team is in, but I've not heard back from the Moss owner (he'd get Portis and Grant/L Johnson for Moss, his choice - he's very shallow on keepers). I think Brady will have a good year, and is more valuable in our 2QB system and I had to give him up(though Ben should do well, too); but Ben/Moss/Gore is a nice return.

I'm looking for other opinions. Which team looks like the best starting point? Would you make the deals in the other owners' shoes? Am I selling Portis for too little?

Thanks for any input!

Posted by: Marcumzilla on 06 Aug 2009

2 replies , Last at 06 Aug 2009, 4:24pm by Marcumzilla

Re: Pre-season trading
by bird jam :: Thu, 08/06/2009 - 2:26pm

KUBIAK's skepticism on Portis has left me a frustrated Ladell Betts owner a couple of years in a row now...

Of those options, I think I like Team 1 the most but it would depend on what kind of receivers are still available after everyone decides their keepers.

Team 6 is intriguing though.

Re: Pre-season trading
by Marcumzilla :: Thu, 08/06/2009 - 4:24pm

If I keep Portis, I still think I will have Betts targeted late for a handcuff - but not snatching him up like he's going to carry the ball 250 times.

What I like about 7 is that if V Jackson takes the step forward Kubiak is expecting, at his low cost he could be an awesome keeper for years. If I don't get Jackson, I'm hoping his owner values him closer to mainstream than Kubiak and doesn't keep him, but I have no idea if he will. Of course, Moss at his price is nice while he's still elite, but some level of decline is likely before too long. That's why I'm torn.

I don't like 2-5 enough to trade and move away from team 1, but I was still curious if others may have thought differently.

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