Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

15 Sep 2009

Premium Picks - ATS Through Super Bowl Sunday

Cumulative Premium Picks:

There you have it. The Premium Picks for 2009, final through 17 weeks.

Green: 10-13
Yellow: 31-40-4
Red: 84-70-4

So we end with:

Green: (0-1) (0-1) (0-0) (0-0) (2-0) (0-0) (0-0) (0-1) (0-1) (1-2) (3-2) (1-1) (0-1) (0-0) (1-0) (1-1) (1-2)
Yellow: (0-4) (3-2) (1-3) (1-3) (3-1) (3-2) (0-1) (2-1) (3-2) (0-5) (1-1) (5-1) (1-4) (4-2-1) (1-4-1) (2-2-1) (1-2-1)
Red: (6-5) (3-7) (6-6) (8-2) (3-5) (6-3) (3-8-1) (5-4) (3-4) (6-0-1) (5-4) (2-6) (5-5) (5-4) (3-4-2) (9-0) (6-3)

* I seem to have counted one or two wins for the Red as losses somewhere in there. I probably didn't use the latest predictions from that week. FO has the red with two greater wins and two fewer losses than what I have posted

PLAYOFFS
--------

Wild Card Round (3-1):

GREEN: GB +3 at ARI - Lost

YELLOW: NYJ +3 at CIN - Won

RED: DAL -4 vs. PHI - Won
RED: BAL +3.5 at NE - Won

Divisional Playoff Round (1-3):

GREEN: NYJ +8 at SD - Won

YELLOW: ARI +7 at NO - Lost

RED: BAL +7 at IND - Lost
RED: DAL +3 at MIN - Lost

Conference Championship Round (1-1)

YELLOW: NYJ +8 at IND - Lost
YELLOW: MIN +4 at NO - Won

Super Bowl (1-0)

YELLOW: NO +6 - Won

(Picked NO straight up, also -- 9-2 straight up in the playoffs)

Posted by: The PoP on 15 Sep 2009

12 replies , Last at 25 Jan 2010, 2:53pm by The PoP

1
Re: Premium Picks, week 1
by ProfessorBen :: Wed, 09/16/2009 - 9:06pm

variance.

2
Re: Premium Picks, week 1
by dukesb1 :: Fri, 09/18/2009 - 11:08pm

I just purchased Premium content, and can now see the FO Week 2 picks, but is there anyway for me to see the FO Week 1 picks for my own knowledge?

3
Re: Premium Picks, week 1
by tally :: Sun, 09/20/2009 - 7:39pm

Picks this year have been pretty terrible through two weeks, both straight up and ATS. They were a lot better last year. I'm willing to chalk it up to variance, but personally, I think it has more to do with the preseason projections not being very good this year. I think once the picks are based mostly on this year's performance, they will be a lot more accurate.

4
Re: Premium Picks, week 1
by Sifter :: Mon, 09/21/2009 - 12:11am

I would imagine the picks would get better in the 5-12 week kinda range - when DVOA has a better picture of the true abilities of teams rather than the win-loss records that your average mug will use to gamble with. Anyone have this experience, or am I talking out my arse?

Of course, it would be nice if DVOA were superior for the whole season, but meh, you can't have it all...

5
Re: Premium Picks - Through Week 2
by jebmak :: Wed, 09/30/2009 - 2:36pm

Actually, in my experience, the information that I get from FO has been best at the beginning of the season before other people figure it out. Unfortunately, this season hasn't worked out that way thus far.

6
Re: Premium Picks - Through Week 5
by The PoP :: Tue, 10/13/2009 - 6:31pm

Well, it looks like you called it, Sifter. Week five was the week the Premium Picks decided to show signs of life.

Can it continue?

We shall see...

7
Re: Premium Picks - Through Week 11
by Jeff Fogle :: Wed, 12/09/2009 - 1:36pm

Are there any recent updates on performance? Also, could someone provide a brief explanation of what green/yellow/red means? Figured it was like a traffic light, but then red means stop...so that might not be the right metaphor.

8
Re: Premium Picks - Through Week 11
by The PoP :: Wed, 12/09/2009 - 3:02pm

All right! Someone was getting some benefit from my updates.

I'll update things through week 13 in a second. Although I was keeping track, I really didn't care too much at this point. I would've updated periodically, and definitely at the end of the year, because I wanted some sort of record to help people who were like me, on the fence as to whether or not they wanted to purchase the Premium Content.

I'd asked for a breakdown of last year on the message board, but got no response. Someone else asked at the start of the season and simply got from another board member: "the green and yellow plays usually do a good job of beating the closing line. u either understand the significance of this or you don't."

Well, it didn't take long to understand the significance. It's called the Law of Averages, and the green and yellow plays have been dog vomit against the closing lines this year. Mind you, if you were bold enough to just go opposite, you would have been quite successful as they've been consistently bad except for weeks five and twelve, as you can tell.

Anyway, to answer your question, I'll just paste what's on the page for the Premium Picks:

GREEN: High arbitrage. For the occasional bettor.
YELLOW: Reasonable arbitrage. For the avid bettor.
RED: Avoid unless you are in a picks pool that requires choosing a winner in all games.

9
Re: Premium Picks - Through Week 13
by Jeff Fogle :: Wed, 12/09/2009 - 9:22pm

Thanks The PoP! Appreciate the update. Very interested in how DVOA succeeds or fails in the predictive process in all it's various incarnations (premium selections, publications, etc...) I know how difficult it is to do well in that regard, and that the standards for success over larger samples are much closer to the 53-54% range than the numbers you see in ads (even on this site, for outside places). Thanks very much for the update you'll be providing soon, and for the clarification on what the categories mean...

10
Re: Premium Picks - Through Week 17
by Jeff Fogle :: Fri, 01/15/2010 - 8:40pm

Thanks ThePoP for the final regular season update. Will there be playoff selections? Or, was that just a regular season service only for Premium clients?

11
Re: Premium Picks - Through Week 17
by The PoP :: Fri, 01/22/2010 - 8:59am

Wild Card Round (3-1):

GREEN: GB +3 at ARI - Lost

YELLOW: NYJ +3 at CIN - Won

RED: DAL -4 vs. PHI - Won
RED: BAL +3.5 at NE - Won

Divisional Playoff Round (1-3):

GREEN: NYJ +8 at SD - Won

YELLOW: ARI +7 at NO - Lost

RED: BAL +7 at IND - Lost
RED: DAL +3 at MIN - Lost

12
Re: Premium Picks - Through Week 17
by The PoP :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 2:53pm

Conference Championship Round (1-1)

YELLOW: NYJ +8 at IND - Lost
YELLOW: MIN +4 at NO - Won

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