Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

23 Aug 2012

Preparing for the playoffs with strength of schedule

In terms of playoff strength of schedule, a couple of different websites report the worst match-ups for weeks 14-16 QBs are (hardest at the top) --

32. Washington (weeks 1-13 SoS QB rank: 6)
31. New England (weeks 1-13 SoS QB rank: 29)
30. San Diego (weeks 1-13 SoS QB rank: 21)
29. Denver (weeks 1-13 SoS QB rank: 7th)
28. Indianapolis (weeks 1-13 SoS QB rank: 12th)

In the Kubiak playoff adjustment percentages for 4/5 of these teams' QBs are 100%+. Do values over 100% indicate those players have easier playoff schedules than the rest of their season? ...then again, the SoS ratings I'm looking at are based on defensive performances from 2011 applied to schedules from this year. Does Kubiak adjust SoS ranks to include off-season defensive changes?

Thanks for any info, I'm already super excited for the fantasy draft due largely to Kubiak.

Posted by: rainingwaffles on 23 Aug 2012

2 replies , Last at 24 Aug 2012, 12:12pm by Zac

Re: Preparing for the playoffs with strength of schedule
by bird jam :: Fri, 08/24/2012 - 8:17am

I used to worry about this, but I have gotten to the point in my fantasy career where I just ignore it. It is based on so much speculation (projecting how good each team in the league is supposed to be in Week 14, how healthy each team will be, etc.) that I just don't feel like it does any good.

Re: Preparing for the playoffs with strength of schedule
by Zac :: Fri, 08/24/2012 - 12:12pm

If the Playoff Adjustment is above 100%, then yes, that means that the player is projected by KUBIAK to have an easier schedule in weeks 14 - 16.
KUBIAK figures out strength of schedule based on its opponents projected defenses.
I agree with bird jam that it's not particularly useful. I'm not going to shy away from drafting Rodgers or Eli Manning just because KUBIAK thinks their playoff weeks might be tough. I've had years where I didn't even make it to the playoffs.

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