Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

20 Dec 2009

QB DYAR Is A Fake Stat

As of 12.15.09, Tom Brady was leading ALL QBs in DYAR. Can someone please tell me how DYAR is calculated because I'm having a hard time reconciling the fact that FO is claiming Tom Brady has the "most value" this year.

Categories that both Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are better than Brady at: QB Rating, YPA, Completion Percentage, TD%, TDs, TD/INT ratio, Yards, and YPG. Brady has a 0.1 better INT% than Brees and the same number of sacks. The only argument I can make for Brady over Manning is that Brady has 4 less INTs and and a 0.6% better INT%. But does that really bump you up to mean you have MORE total value. Does DYAR take Superbowl wins into account?

However, I am being dead serious, can someone please justify to me how Tom Brady has a better DYAR than both Manning AND Brees? If someone can legitimately explain how Brady has more "total value" then I fully and wholeheartedly will recant every bad thing I said, but it does seriously look like a joke than Brady in #1 in DYAR.


Posted by: kaptrap19 on 20 Dec 2009

8 replies , Last at 31 Dec 2012, 4:59am by Seth Lichtenstein

Re: QB DYAR Is A Fake Stat
by Sifter :: Sun, 12/20/2009 - 4:43pm

It's been touched on in some recent threads, in particular this one:

2 main reasons I can see, maybe 3:
1) Brady has faced nearly ALL the good pass defenses, "the hardest schedule of pass defenses of any quarterback with at least 300 passes in a season during the DVOA Era", according to Aaron and since DYAR is adjusted by DEFENSE then he is getting an upward adjustment on his raw numbers for that (I assume you've read the 'Our New Stats Explained' page here)
2) His big day against Tennessee. In that comments to that linked article, Aaron mentions that if that Titans game magically didn't exist and was replaced with an average Brady 2009 day, he'd be down to 3rd in DYAR and 5th in DVOA.
3) He's passed the ball more than Brees, so he's gonna be higher in DYAR based on that. In DVOA, he is 3rd behind Rivers and Brees.

I personally don't think Brady the #1 QB this year, but I can see why the numbers might think that. But anyway, the universe is suddenly balancing out for Golden Boy Tom. He's being compared to 2007 Brady, his pass defense sucks so his team isn't as great, and the Pats are losing close games when their whole dynasty was built on their unbelievable record in close games. Had to happen to him sometime.

But he's still a damn good QB and I'd be worried about what could happen in the playoffs if I were the other AFC teams.

BTW, I'm an Eagles fan and as a general rule I hate the Pats. I hate the tuck rule, I hate Adam Vinatieri, I hate Bill Belicheck and I hate Tom Brady. But that doesn't mean that I can't acknowledge that he's pretty good.

Re: QB DYAR Is A Fake Stat
by kaptrap19 :: Mon, 12/21/2009 - 2:09am

Thanks for the clarification, I'll definitely check out the thread

1) I can understand the logic of doing well against great pass D's, but to me, why are you credited for doing just darn good against great pass D's versus a guy that's actually doing better overall against shittier pass D's? You can't help the teams you face and you shouldn't be "punished" for doing well against a shittier opponent. If you complete more passes and more TDs and just overall perform better than another QB, no matter what defense you face, then you should be rewarded for excelling against the team in front of you that week.
2) If one game really makes that big of a statistical jump, then it really tells you the true worth of the player over the course of his 16 game season
3) The fact that Brees has done more with less attempts seems to me that it should work more towards Brees' advantage, not against him

I just want to clarify, I think Brady is a top 5 QB this year and top 3 in the AFC which makes him pro bowl worthy. I just think if you're compiling a stat to measure every QB's "true overall worth" you have failed in this regard

And I am a Patriots fan and I love Tom Brady but I can respect other guys being better than him- like Brees and the ********* that is Peyton Manning

Re: QB DYAR Is A Fake Stat
by Eddo :: Wed, 12/23/2009 - 5:51pm

"3) The fact that Brees has done more with less attempts seems to me that it should work more towards Brees' advantage, not against him"

Then you don't understand what DYAR is measuring; it's a cumulative stat. DYAR:DVOA::Total Yards:Yards per Attempt. Brees is better in the per-play metric, DVOA, while Brady is better in the cumulative metric, DYAR, since he has more attempts.

Re: QB DYAR Is A Fake Stat
by Pitt-skee (not verified) :: Thu, 12/31/2009 - 2:32am

I just want to know... umm have the pats played Carolina or Green Bay, in the last six weeks because right now those are really the top pass defenses as of late. Oh and the Tennessee game was played against a 31st ranked pass defense at the time and against a team that quit so it shouldn't even count on a stat sheet. Oh by the way no one is scared of the pats in playoffs. At least no one playing good football. Blitz him every down like ryan did, and you'll beat him in the fourth quarter.

Re: QB DYAR Is A Fake Stat
by andrew :: Fri, 01/08/2010 - 10:22am

The Pats did indeed play Carolina in the last six weeks (week 14). Pats won 20-10.

Brady had 101 DYAR that week. He was lackluster in the first half but terrific in the second half, the quick reads for that week notes: "Brady went on a rampage in the second half. An incompletion to Laurence Maroney was followed by ten straight completions, yielding six first downs and a touchdown."

This was the infamous game in which the Panthers accused Moss of "quitting". Since you bring it up, should the Panthers not get credit for shutting down Moss if he did quit? Should Brady not get penalized for passes he threw to Moss if he quit? Quitting is too subjective to measure statistically. I'm sure Favre definitely benefited from the Giants having gone into vacation slumber mode in the finale, despite the fact all their non-injured starters were there.

Re: QB DYAR Is A Fake Stat
by Sifter :: Fri, 01/08/2010 - 4:40pm

To come back to this thread. The final season stats are in and Brady finished first in DYAR ahead of Rivers, Manning and Brees. But he finished 6th in YAR, with Manning first and Brees second. That seems more logical for Joe Average fan, but it does not take into account the defenses faced. That is where Brady had a truly noteworthy year.

Re: QB DYAR Is A Fake Stat
by StatEngineer (not verified) :: Wed, 12/26/2012 - 6:18pm

DYAR is not a fake stat. It may be a less than accurate stat but it is more accurate than QBR which is more accurate than Passer Rating which is more accurate than those idiot sports writers who showed their bias when they tried to rationalize Manning getting the MVP in a year in which he didn't even play. MVP should not be given over to the writers who have shown they have a bias for Manning which has already led to him getting two MVPs that they cannot statistically support. DYAR & DVOA are the most accurate at identifying the most valuable to date. Until someone creates a more accurate measure, it should decide the MVP to rule out media bias. Otherwise we just might as well realize the media wants Manning to get the award every year despite not being worthy to receive it.
Currently Peterson and Brady are the only true candidates with Brady ahead by an amount which is statistically significant...MVP Brady!!!

Re: QB DYAR Is A Fake Stat
by Seth Lichtenstein (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2012 - 4:59am

What two MVPs did Manning win that he shouldn't have? If anything, he should have two more, but writers were basically tired of voting for him in 2005 and 2006 (and were overly-impressed by rushing TDs).

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