Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

12 Jul 2012

QB Fumbles

KUBIAK is spitting out some truly massive fumble numbers for QBs. This may be worthy of a second look. Practically every QB - from Aaron Rodgers to Ryan Fitzpatrick - is projected to set a new career high in fumbles.

Posted by: Yaguar on 12 Jul 2012

4 replies , Last at 12 Jul 2012, 11:31am by Aaron Schatz

4
Re: QB Fumbles
by nkowal :: Thu, 07/12/2012 - 2:37pm

I don't know the answer to this, but is "Fumbles" in the projections the number of fumbles or the number of fumbles lost? I assumed it was the former and then a percentage of fumble loss was applied to those, because predicting fumbles is a little bit easier than predicting fumbles lost.

1
Re: QB Fumbles
by Yaguar :: Thu, 07/12/2012 - 9:57am

KUBIAK predicts fumbles, not fumbles lost. It assumes 50% of fumbles are lost.

2
Re: QB Fumbles
by Aaron Schatz :: Thu, 07/12/2012 - 10:56am

That's true, but also, you're right. They do seem high. I'll look at that and figure out what happened.

3
Re: QB Fumbles
by Aaron Schatz :: Thu, 07/12/2012 - 11:31am

OK, a new version is now up that fixes this.

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