Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

27 Aug 2011

QB production compared to WR/RB/TE totals

Let's look at Vick and Rodgers, for easy comparison. Kubiak shows Vick at 3763 passing yards. If I add up all the Eagles WR/RB/TE receiving stats it comes to 4217. This is a difference of 454 yards. Is this Kubiak's way of telling us that someone other than Vick will be throwing 454 yards for the Eagles (as in Vick's likely to miss ~2 games)?

Rodgers is much closer with 4207 for Rodgers compared to 4367 for the WR/RB/TE, for 160 yards.

Shouldn't a team's total receiving stats be pretty close to their QB's passing stats, or am I missing something?

Posted by: beamaeb on 27 Aug 2011

3 replies , Last at 29 Aug 2011, 10:04pm by maxpower179

1
Re: QB production compared to WR/RB/TE totals
by jabrch :: Sat, 08/27/2011 - 12:47am

You are right - Vick is likely to miss time at some point. Thus Kubkiak adjusts for that.

2
Re: QB production compared to WR/RB/TE totals
by Zac :: Sat, 08/27/2011 - 9:53am

Aaron also wrote that not all WRs will necessarily reach the numbers they are projected for. Each projection is the best guess for that WR, but some might be cut, some will be injured. Likewise the QB numbers are the best guess for what that QB will reach. You shouldn't expect them to be the same.

3
Re: QB production compared to WR/RB/TE totals
by maxpower179 :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 10:04pm

I think FO should look at this. The Saints as a team are projected to have 5,112 yards receiving, which would be an NFL passing record if one QB threw for it, and is 720 more yards than Brees is projected to throw for. Clearly at least one Saint's receiving projection is inflated. I would understand if the error were the other way because inevitably Brees will throw some passes to random guys that don't have KUBIAK projections, so if his projected passing total was higher than all his receivers' receiving totals that would make sense. But it's the other way around, and 700 yards is a substantial difference that makes me question if there is a 'cheap' opportunity to improve the accuracy of the projections.

To be fair to Aaron, Jamey Eisenberg over at CBS implicitly projected the Rams would have 6,300+ yards receiving this season...

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