Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

16 Aug 2010

QB in rd 1?

10 of the top 11 players in my league last year were all QBs (w/the exception of CJ at #6). With the #1 pick in a 12-team snake draft, would I be crazy NOT to pick a QB?

my KUBIAK is only showing 3 QBs in the Top 25, do I trust KUBIAK or do I go with the proven evidence of last year's results?

Posted by: yieldcurve on 16 Aug 2010

7 replies , Last at 26 Aug 2012, 3:37pm by J. Winn

Re: QB in rd 1?
by JuridianSantaal... :: Mon, 08/16/2010 - 8:47pm

Well, first, what's your scoring format?

but if its standard, no, you shouldn't pick a QB.

QB scores the most points, but you said it yourself - 10 of the top 11 players in your league last year were QBs since they score more points - so the difference between getting the #1 QB and the #9 QB is probably not as much as the difference between the #1 RB and the #9 WR.

On the surface, you'd want QB because of the high point potential, but its a trick - There's really about 8-10 good QBs in fantasy football and you can usually get a good one in the 2nd or 3rd round in most leagues.

Re: QB in rd 1?
by Dan :: Tue, 08/17/2010 - 4:04pm

You're probably better off waiting on a QB and building a big advantage at other positions (CJ & Mendenhall with your first two picks?). It depends on when other teams take their backup quarterbacks, though. If even the average quarterbacks go quickly, and you have to take a QB in the first 3 rounds in order to avoid starting Trent Edwards, then you probably need to reach and take a QB early. But if you can wait on QB and still end up with someone decent (like Roethlisberger + Garrard, or even just Garrard), then that's what you should do.

This is assuming standard rules, like that you're starting only 1 QB.

Re: QB in rd 1?
by dutchtreat :: Tue, 08/17/2010 - 8:49pm

I agree with JS and Dan. If you only start 1 QB there's no reason to worry about grabbing a QB in the first 3 rounds. Go with a top RB and then the best player (WR or RB) in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Re: QB in rd 1?
by robi0420 :: Thu, 08/19/2010 - 1:11am

If Brees, Rodgers, or Manning are available I might pick them with your 2nd or 3rd round pick. In my league they would be gone by then. If you start 2 QB's I would not be afraid to pick one 1st overall. Only 1 QB starter, NO WAY do you draft one of them #1 overall.

Jake Robinson

Re: QB in rd 1?
by socctty :: Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:44am

You're approaching this the wrong way. The fact that 10 of the top 11 players in your fantasy league last year were QBs suggests that you should WAIT to draft them, not draft them first (generally speaking).

What matters isn't TOTAL scoring - QBs will dominate most fantasy leagues these days. It's the scoring of the player in question relative to how people in his position score.

If the top QB in your league was 10 points better than the 2nd QB in your league, then you can probably wait. If the top RB in your league was 100 points better than the 2nd-best RB, then you should probably take a RB first.

Let's say your league only has four players available, QB1, QB2, RB1, and RB2, and that there is only one other owner in the league. These are the expected results from those players:

QB1 500 pts
QB2 490 pts
RB1 300 pts
RB2 200 pts

And let's say you pick first. QB1 looks like the best player - he's going to score the most points! But you'd actually rather have RB1, because compared to his peer RB2, he's going to score 100 pts more. Then you'd end up with QB2, and the other owner would have RB2 and QB1. The end of season standings would look like this:

You: 790 pts
Opponent: 700 pts.

You'd win the league by a relatively large margin of 90 pts.

In fact, if you go back 5 or 10 years I wouldn't be surprised that a QB would lead your league in scoring based on the settings you currently use. But I also would bet that, absent maybe Manning's 49 TD and Brady's 50 TD years, that you would have been better off picking up a RB with the first overall pick every one of those years.

Re: QB in rd 1?
by Dan :: Tue, 08/24/2010 - 7:16pm

socctty is right.

When I made my earlier post, I thought you were saying that 10 of the first 11 players drafted were QBs. Now that I realize you were saying that 10 of the highest scoring 11 players were QBs, I'll just agree with what socctty wrote, repeat that you should draft a RB at #1, and recommend that you look up information on Value Based Drafting (e.g., here).

Re: QB in rd 1?
by J. Winn (not verified) :: Sun, 08/26/2012 - 3:37pm

I might take Aaron Rodgers if your scoring is extremely QB friendly. But generally speaking I would take Arian Foster and see if you couldn't get Brees, Stafford, or Newton with your second pick.

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