Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

01 Jul 2013

QBR Analysis

I note both FO and ESPN now feature a QBR ranking. Good show. Better understanding of QB play is to be encouraged and both (they may be one and and same) do a good job.

However, with the ESPN breakout, I detect a flaw (perhaps).

That faults of the NFL passer rating have been widely explored. Looking at the ESPN breakdown of the rating, Aaron Rodgers has a glaring -39 for sacks (though a big positive for runs.) That's way bigger that any other QB and seriously affects his rating. I would actually think this should be broken into two parts (or more): O line sacks and QB sacks. The definition of O line sack is one wherein the QB really doesn't have much of an option but to run for it the best he can as the D is in on him very quickly. I don't see why any such should negatively reflect on rating the QB skill, and we all know there were enough of those in the case of Rodgers for example. The definition of a QB sack is one that occurs when the QB holds the ball "too long" eschewing an opportunity to throw it away, again something we've seen with AR. Now that should definitely count against a QB, because he is making a choice, and late completions, which are presumably another consequence of holding the ball, count for him. And we've seen plenty of that from AR as well.

Posted by: Brucest on 01 Jul 2013

3 replies , Last at 09 Sep 2013, 9:49am by Hut Hut

Re: QBR Analysis
by rosmith51 :: Wed, 07/24/2013 - 4:06pm

Going by that logic we should also not count any completions where the QB had more than three seconds of pocket time to throw the ball, since that is case where the QB *should* have gotten rid of the ball sooner but was only able to make a play because his OL gave him more time.

Re: QBR Analysis
by murph27 (not verified) :: Tue, 08/20/2013 - 10:36am

No system is perfect but I like that they attempt to account for sacks taken. In Aaron Rodgers case, he had 51 sacks last year and 29 of them were what FO refer to as late sacks. That is a huge number. While sacks are almost always better than interceptions(the exception being a bomb on 3rd or 4th down) and Rodgers throws very few picks, sacks are often drive killers and need to be accounted for in some way.

Re: QBR Analysis
by Hut Hut :: Mon, 09/09/2013 - 9:49am

I am a novice at this, but how does FO normalize their data? With an arithmetic mean or a geometric mean?

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