Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

07 Aug 2012

quick Red Zone question

wanted to get the definition of the "vs. Avg" column in the "Red Zone 2011" tab in this year's KUBIAK...

under "GOAL LINE RUNNING vs. AVERAGE" i see Marshawn Lynch having 13 attempts and 8 TDs with a "vs. Avg" of 3.7.

...not sure how to decipher, evaluate & compare to others. apologies if it's covered elsewhere, but sifted through the instructions page and googled to no avail.

tks for the assist.

Posted by: ratay1 on 07 Aug 2012

2 replies , Last at 07 Aug 2012, 11:13am by ratay1

Re: quick Red Zone question
by Aaron Schatz :: Tue, 08/07/2012 - 11:09am

This means that Marshawn Lynch had 13 carries inside the FIVE yard line. On those 13 carries, you would expect a back to have 4.3 touchdowns, but Lynch had 8 touchdowns, a difference of 3.7.

We've found that very few backs have an advantage/disadvantage when it comes to goal-line running and having a "nose for the end zone." So you would expect this to regress towards the mean in 2012.

There are a few exceptions, usually related to the o-line rather than the back himself. (Hi, Matt Forte's linemen.)

Re: quick Red Zone question
by ratay1 :: Tue, 08/07/2012 - 11:13am

tks aaron. appreciate the quick response.

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