Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

23 Aug 2011

reacting to a QB crazy league.

I have the 4th pick. Both years the draft has went exactly the same. 7 QBs drafted in the first two rounds. 3 more in the early third round.

Then, after the the 7th round (once the 7 starting spots are full) another 4 QBs are selected in the 8th.

visualization:
http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg98/scaled.php?server=98&filename=qbrun....

I pick 4th.
My tenative plan is to go Rodgers or Vick if possible. It's not great value but it will make the other players get extremely bad value where they would be getting Rodgers or Vick.

If I wanted Romo/Schaub/Ben/Freeman I'd have to pick them in the third.
I could see getting a *tiny* bargain on Eli or Flacco in the 7th.

Posted by: frievalt on 23 Aug 2011

25 replies , Last at 01 Sep 2011, 3:55pm by Anonymous12345IWIN

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Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by mcbrown :: Wed, 08/24/2011 - 8:44am

What is the roster/lineup makeup of your league? Assuming only 1 starting QB and a standard number of W/R/T positions or greater, I would ignore the QB scramble and rake in the quality WR and RB that your league-mates are ignoring. Then draft a mediocre QB late. If the other players are already drafting bench QB's at that point, even better - more value for you in WR and RB. So you get stuck with a lower tier QB - no big deal if you're making up for it at the other positions.

Don't be sucked into overpaying just because other people are. A few weeks into the season someone will figure out that they made a mistake and they need an upgrade at WR or RB; you will then be in position to trade with them for a better QB. Or they will be stubborn and stick with their roster full of quality QBs they can't play, and you'll dominate the league with your monster skill players and mediocre QB.

2
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by jabrch :: Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:06pm

IF your league only allows you to start 1 QB, then I'd stock up on RBs and WRs and go get yourself a QB like Freeman or something later.

IF your league requires/allows you to start 2 QBs, you have to take one at 4. (Vick, Rivers, Rogers, Brees or Brady).

My league allows QB as flex - so with 12 teams, you can be sure that at least 8 QBs will be off the board by the end of round 2; possibly up to 10 of them. (the 5 listed above + Roethlis, Ryan, Romo, Manning (depending on health) and Schaub)

Teams who don't have 2 QBs by the third round may end up with good RBs and WRs, but they will have to start a non-QB at flex, and on their QBs bye week, start a bad QB. Worse yet - if their guy gets injured, FA is not a viable place to find someone unless it is your guy's backup - and we bid cash on FA, so you may have to pay a ton of money (if for example Vick goes down and you have to bid on Vince Young, it could cost you $50...)

So, can't answer without knowing you league format...

3
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by jabrch :: Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:11pm

Another thought is to trade down....if people really value QBs, and the top ones in particular, maybe you can turn #4 into a late first and a 2nd or 3rd? Then you can get Ben/Romo even in the second, and have a top tier RB or WR to boot?

If it is a 1 QB league, I'd be shopping that pick to add an extra pick in the first few rounds at the expense of moving down to the end of round 1, or even round 2. I'd consider giving up #4 overall for someone drafting 12-16's 2nd, 3rd and 6th...or 2nd, 4th and 5th?

4
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by frievalt :: Thu, 08/25/2011 - 9:09am

1qb, 2 rb, 3 wr 1 te

5
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by jabrch :: Thu, 08/25/2011 - 10:35am

Then I would DEFINITELY trade down. Get yourself some more WRs given that 48 will be started every week and deal with a QB ranked in the 10-16 range....

6
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by frievalt :: Thu, 08/25/2011 - 11:42am

No trading predraft.

i think my choices, looking at qb using KUBIAK, ADP, and my knowledge of the league are as follows:

Which of these is the best value (14 team .5ppr)

ROUND 1(pick 4): Aaron/Vick
ROUND 2(pick 11): ---no value---
ROUND 3(pick 4): Payton
ROUND 4(pick 11): Ben
ROUND 5(pick 4):
ROUND 6(pick 11):
ROUND 7(pick 4): Eli, Flacco

I cannot wait past the 7th round because backup QBs get picked fast.

The thing about QB, while they are overvalued... it seems like the people picking them are less likely to blunder. QBs don't come out of nowhere (mike vick aside), and you really have to pay for the upside.

7
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by mcbrown :: Thu, 08/25/2011 - 1:24pm

Personally, I would be looking at someone like Eli or Flacco in round 7.

12
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by frievalt :: Sun, 08/28/2011 - 8:43am

I did wind up going Flacco (over Eli) in round 7. Ben in round 4 wasn't even an option.

13
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by ejayp :: Sun, 08/28/2011 - 4:05pm

How did the rest of your team end up? I'm in a similar situation to you (14 team league with standard rules and a history of QBs going early). Unless I encounter a value for Rivers or Roethlisberger I'm thinking my first 7-8 picks may be RB/WR.

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Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by frievalt :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 12:13am

DRAFT RECAP:

lots of pre-draft chatter (for weeks now), 4 years in the league... I know tendencies and even chatted a lot of info out of people.

General gameplan: Studs, then safes, then upsides. 14 team means just get assets and don't miss.

Specific gameplan:
Lock down Antonio Gates, win TE. Know that league tends to reject RB-RB strat (.5 ppr). Predict Hillis, Gore, or Forte falls to me in the 3 else target Benson/Addai in the mids. Consider Big Ben in the 4. Obtain 2-3 safe WRs before they run out. Try to leave the draft with 4 RBs better than or equal Brandon Jacobs -if you can connect on an extra RB it's the easiest position to move/most likely to win you the league.

Lemma: WRs that I have ranked below Santana Moss are untrustworthy and carry a high chance of being worthless.

Lemma: I can identify and obtain a serviceable WR3 on waivers just as well (or better) than picking the guys under my studs and safes.

i picked 4th in the odd rounds, 11th in the even rounds:
*=FO top prospect

1. Ray Rice (Vick goes #3!)
2. Antonio Gates (in anticipation of my 3rd round pick being available)
3. Peyton Hillis
4. Santonio Holmes (Coulda/Maybe shoulda went Mike Williams TB)
5. Percy Harvin (Knowing by my next pick now all safe WRs are gone)
6. Reggie Bush (RB dries up, was hoping for Addai or Benson)
7. Joe Flacco (Considered Eli, decided I was already throwing my hat in with BALT)
8. *Jared Cook (2 people who loved him were taking him... I knew I could wait on McGahee based on everyone in the way already having 3 RBs)
9. Willis McGahee (the last draftable RB imo is now gone)
10. *Andre Roberts (the last trustable WR left with S.Moss in the 7th)
11. Bears D (Not worried about losing anyone here, no one I love is left)
12. *David Nelson
13. Cam Newton (great matchup on Flacco's Bye, every remaining QB is proven trash)
14. Browns D (dig the sack numbers, maybe shoulda stashed another WR here)
15. Kicker

Thoughts on my results:
-Hillis was my ideal fall in the third, but I figured he'd be there.
-RB dried up faster than I anticipated. Wanted to get Addai or Benson to go with Bush. RBs are incredible assets!
-The two best players in the league were waiting forever on TE, I may have gotten too tricky in selecting Cook.
-My roster is too stressed because I am carrying 2 DEF, 2 QB, and 2 TE. Don't need a backup for Gates. This is also an argument for getting a lockdown QB1 (Big Ben!)
-Willis McGahee as my #4 is weak. But he's stronger than some peoples RB3, suckers.

Feel free to comment.

15
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by jabrch :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 2:41am

Personally, I can't justify drafting Gates where you did. TE is so deep - as it is you got Cook later. Carrying 2 TEs and 2 D is questionable al. so. I can't see how you wouldn't have been better off taking the best available QB in round 2, taken Cook where you did, and had more top tier skill players. Flacco is decent - but drafting a TE so high isn't my favorite route to go.

Good luck!

17
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by frievalt :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 10:31am

Shaub was drafted before me in the 2nd round.

If forced to take a QB in the 2nd it would have been big Ben. Crazy QB run.

18
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by jabrch :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 1:34pm

I'd have definitely gone Ben and Cook over Flacco and Gates...but that's just me. I'm not saying it is a bad choice - just not one I'd have made.

Good Luck!

16
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by mcbrown :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 10:22am

I think this is a pretty good outcome. I don't love carrying two D's and two TE's, but being in a deep league myself I know what you mean about finding a serviceable WR on waivers - by the end of the draft it's usually pretty slim pickings, so it doesn't always hurt to wait a week or two to see which marginal guys are receiving playing time.

By the way, I think Newton was a great pickup - I'm aiming to get him in the late rounds just as you did. He'll be terrible in real life as a rookie, but could be quite good in fantasy if he does what I think he can running the ball (and we wonder why coaches hate fantasy football!). If he has a couple big rushing games early he could be a great trade chip.

19
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by frievalt :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 2:54pm

Someone just blundered and dropped Jeremy Maclin. Guess who has top waiver spot?

Who gets the boot?

David Nelson: BUF #2 without much else in town (i believe him to be talented)
Bears D: I expect them to be tough but they open the season ATL, GB, NO.
Cam Newton: I have him as slightly better than Garrard and Henne (available)

Also available on waivers: Steve Smith (PHI) and Arrelious Benn.

my draft as an image:
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/6836/myteamt.png

20
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by Anonymous Dude (not verified) :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 9:31pm

Don't know what your scoring settings are, but if they're anywhere near normal, I'd have focused more on WR, and it's definitely not worth taking Gates in the 2nd.

Top-tier WRs become super-important in PPR leagues.

So, the Johnsons, White, Nicks, Fitzgerald, etc. become extremely good. And players like Welker, Amendola, and Thomas become more important.

Plus, since you start 3 WRs, it's important to have a solid WR core.

So, instead of your draft, say you go:
Rice
Wallace
Hillis
Williams (I agree Williams is likely better than Holmes)
Harvin
Bush
Flacco
Cook (Not thrilled with this early choice, as others have said, TE is deep)
McGahee
Roberts

That's a much stronger lineup with:
Flacco
Rice
Hillis
Wallace
Williams
Harvin
Cook

backups
Bush
McGahee
Roberts

than

Flacco
Rice
Hillis
Holmes
Harvin
Roberts
Gates

backups
Bush
McGahee
Cook

Ideally, you load up even more on backups rather than get stuck in the sameness of the TE.

Basically, who do you really like better out of the following?
Gronkowski, Olsen, Winslow, Keller, Cook, Gonzalez, Cooley, Pettigrew, etc., etc.

There's a lot of decent TE at that level and getting depth is important, especially as you can trade it off in the future, if you don't need it.

23
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by frievalt :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 10:36pm

.5 ppr.

Baselines for WR and TE are similar.

Here's my logic:
I'm not trying to have a good team, I'm trying to have a GREAT team.

There's a common theory out there this year, and that's "you can wait on TE, TE is deep." In a 14 team league, I agree that almost nobody will be screwed at TE. But only I have an edge. A hall of fame, ass-kicking, planet-smashing TE.

Here is a graph I constructed demonstrating the awesomeness of Gates:
http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg577/scaled.php?server=577&filename=tech...

I agree that the teams you listed will have a higher total points over baseline than mine. But I also believe my team is a better starting point for winning the league.

I'm taking a calculated risk that I will be able to find/obtain/create another top 30 WR.

And right one queue, I have top waiver priority as "the new guy" waives Jeremy Maclin. I feel great.

24
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by frievalt :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 10:55pm

As for wasting a lot of Gates's utility by selecting a 2nd TE:

I knew McGahee (the last RB with a safe expected usage pattern) would be there in the 10th based on the other rosters, and all the players I'd select in rounds 11-13 would be equal dart throws.

Jared Cook was the last player I would feel like I missed out on if I didn't get him, and two people cursed when I stole him. The label of "Football Outsiders #1 prospect" carries a lot of weight with alumni like Arian Foster and Mike Wallace.

8
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by frievalt :: Thu, 08/25/2011 - 10:53pm

To win a highly competitve 14-teamer, I'm going to have to hit a home run on a waiver/midround pick or two.

Noting this, I argue that it is strategically sound to go QB early, because QBs appear to have lower variance, higher predictability and a lower injury rate. And nabbing a breakout seems much more difficult at QB than the other positions.

Please refute.

11
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by mcbrown :: Fri, 08/26/2011 - 9:00am

IMO, to win a competitive 14-teamer you need to not waste lineup spots on below-average players, which is what everyone else who reaches for a QB in your league will end up doing. You can't account for someone lucking into a 3rd string RB who ends up starting from week 2 on, other than by handcuffing your starting RBs. Draft for value.

Obviously, value matters at QB as well, and if you can get say Rivers in the second round (seems unlikely based on what you're saying) then that probably makes sense.

And by the way, looking back over your own projection for who will be available where and your league lineup settings, I do think Ben in R4 looks like pretty good value - sorry for that oversight.

21
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by Anonymous Dude (not verified) :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 9:42pm

It depends on what your scoring system is.

If QB Passing TDs = 6, then, it makes more sense to secure a QB early, though it still seems wild that QB's are going so high. The dropoff in QBs is really mild compared to the dropoff of having a full-time RB to a part-time RB, especially securing a receiving RB vs. a rushing-only RB.

If QB Passing TDs = 4, then, it makes NO sense to be drafting a QB in the 2nd round let alone the 1st round as the QB position moves to a very low SD.

So, you should be laughing it to the bank by loading up on your RBs and WRs, while everyone over-values QBs.....

Then, in order to prep for the playoffs, when many poor schmucks need a solid RB or WR, you can get your pick of backup QBs that other players will probably have available....

22
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by Anonymous Dude (not verified) :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 9:43pm

It depends on what your scoring system is.

If QB Passing TDs = 6, then, it makes more sense to secure a QB early, though it still seems wild that QB's are going so high. The dropoff in QBs is really mild compared to the dropoff of having a full-time RB to a part-time RB, especially securing a receiving RB vs. a rushing-only RB.

If QB Passing TDs = 4, then, it makes NO sense to be drafting a QB in the 2nd round let alone the 1st round as the QB position moves to a very low SD.

So, you should be laughing it to the bank by loading up on your RBs and WRs, while everyone over-values QBs.....

Then, in order to prep for the playoffs, when many poor schmucks need a solid RB or WR, you can get your pick of backup QBs that other players will probably have available....

9
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by frievalt :: Thu, 08/25/2011 - 10:58pm

I was looking for shared traits among "breakout" QBs.

-a history of not sucking
-weapons
-(possibly) high nfl draft selection

Candidates:
Matt Ryan
Josh Freeman (everyone's boy, probably have to overpay for upside in a 14 team league)
Joe Flacco

10
Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by tuluse :: Thu, 08/25/2011 - 11:29pm

I might look at platooning 2 QBs. Something like Orton/Cutler.

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Re: reacting to a QB crazy league.
by Anonymous12345IWIN (not verified) :: Thu, 09/01/2011 - 3:55pm

Don't even draft a QB and take 3 or 4 QBs late. seriously. Unless all 32 QBs are going to go in this league. The thing is, QBs although they score the most points, they are not consistent week to week as gameplans will change and some games teams might pass 50 times others they might pass half that. If you get multiple QBs and go with the right matchups you will beat the top few QBs not to mention you have a chance that one of your guys pans out to be much better as there are always new faces in the top 15 QBs.

If QB was a more predictable position in fantasy points, then fine.

But yeah, go with elite players at other positions. Grab 2nd year QBs like Stafford and McCoy who have higher upside even though they both are higher risk along with someone mentioned like Flacco or Roethlisberger or whoever. Even Ryan Fitzpatrick has significant upside. It's not that you need a QB.However, the one thing to consider if you may go with Vick is if the combination of Vick when healthy and Vince Young when Vick isn't in the 16th round is more value than grabbing a backup or two. There is an argument that if others are going to grab so many QBs that trying to grab Flacco and then rush to get whatever backup you can (Matt Hasselback? ew.) so you at least have a backup may make your overall draft worse than if you grabbed Vick and just passed on a 2nd QB until the last pick when you grab V Young. You can always find a guy to pick up for the bye week. Anyways, a QBBC approach later is just fine but I don't think anything wrong with grabbing Vick 4th however I prefer upgrading every other position and value hunting for QBs while grabbing the multiple high risk high reward guys, and hoping one sticks or that you can dump one of them and find someone on waivers that does. QB is not a difficult position to find a pickup. Whether it's Josh Freeman+Vick last year, Favre the year before, and 2008 Aarron Rodgers, there is evidence to suggest that there are lots of late round and undrafted QBs that have potential to rise well above their ADP which is more difficult to find at other positions I think.

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