Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

17 Jul 2009

red zone regression vs. 3rd down regression

Just out of curiosity, is there a way to quantify (or barring that, a simple estimation of) the relative importance of the red zone success regression factor discussed in FOA09 and the old 3rd down success study? The over/under-performance on 3rd down has become a factor in teams projections, and certainly the St. Louis chapter suggests the new red zone over/under-performance study factors into projections as well; but on a relative scale, how do they compare?

Posted by: danspacesmith on 17 Jul 2009

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