Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Sep 2011

Reggie Wayne

With the news that Manning has undergone surgery and will be out 2-3 months, what is the impact on Reggie Wayne's fantasy value (specifically, in a 0.5 PPR league)?

My initial reaction is that the offense as a whole will be significantly worse. The running game is not a viable alternative. The 2011 version of Wayne is primarily a possession receiver. He won't be targeted in the red zone nearly as much because the offense won't be in the red zone as much. I would cut Wayne's projected TD's in half. However, Kerry Collins will still look for him as the best receiving option in the offense. His targets might even go up slightly. He should maintain his total number of receptions, but it is possible that receptions for the other receiving options in the offense will take a hit, since Collins' is not as accurate as Manning. Do you think that he sees any kind of bonus in receptions from the fact that the defense will be terrible, the offense will be playing from behind, and Collins will be more likely to air it out?

All in all, I imagine Wayne's value just dropped from top 7 WR in PPR to upper-middle of the road WR2. Ouch. Between him and Santana Moss... I really wish Steve Johnson or Manningham had fallen to me. Anybody want to suggest a high-upside waiver wire guy?

Posted by: Arjen.Robben on 08 Sep 2011

2 replies , Last at 08 Sep 2011, 9:26pm by Zheng

1
Re: Reggie Wayne
by boone88rr :: Thu, 09/08/2011 - 4:14pm

Well I selected him to be my WR2 in a PPR league last Thursday. I'd be more concerned if it was Curtis Painter behind center. While Collins is not Manning he is a professional QB and still better than probably 10 other starters in the league.

I think Indy was a few injuries away from being terrible even with Manning. I still think Wayne and Clark will be good for 7-10 catches a week each with a few 100 yard games thrown in. I agree that the TDs are going to decrease but honestly in a PPR league I didn't select either of them to lead my team in TDs.

I'd still rather have Wayne over other #1 WR on teams like CIN, JAX, SEA, SF, OAK, MIN, CAR, WAS, CLE, TEN and probably even BUF and MIA. And Stevie Johnson and Marshall are proof that a good QB does not a productive fantasy WR make.

Wayne is still a top-20 WR in PPR. Probably a little lower in standard scoring. I think Garcon and Collie aren't startable in most leagues until proven otherwise.

2
Re: Reggie Wayne
by Zheng :: Thu, 09/08/2011 - 9:26pm

I'd hang on to Wayne. Collins is likely to lock on to him and there is always an outside possibility of Garrard or (really unlikely) Palmer.

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