Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

20 Aug 2009

Risky RBs, what do you think?

In my auction draft on Saturday I'm thinking about grabbing these two high risk RBs, please share your opinions on their prospects:

Julius Jones: Mostly based on KUBIAK (from the book), who not only gave him generous numbers but also only a "yellow" risk. However we can't count on Walter Jones being back this year, and, well, Julius hasn't been a very good back. Also I'm concerned Duckett might vulture some of his touchdowns... Kubiak's double digit prediction shocked me.

Larry Johnson: I always pay mind to playoff week matchups and the Chiefs have the fortune of facing Cleveland and Cincinnati in weeks 15 and 16. I'm hoping to get him for like $15-20 out of the 200 auction budget. But he's an injury/suspension risk and I could easily see Jamaal Charles getting the job by that point.

Tomlinson: All you ever hear about is why you shouldn't draft him, how he's slowing down, etc, etc but I like his rebound potential, plus he's got Dallas and the Bengals in weeks 14 and 15 (although Tennessee is tough in 16). I'm thinking of bidding up to 40 or 45 for him, but only if I miss Steven Jackson first (for the record, S-Jax has a heavenly playoff schedule).

Posted by: Zack on 20 Aug 2009

3 replies , Last at 27 Aug 2009, 10:30am by dutchtreat

Re: Risky RBs, what do you think?
by Brendan Scolari (not verified) :: Thu, 08/20/2009 - 7:01pm

I think JJ is being overrated by KUBIAK. Walter Jones is already hurt and there's a good chance Hasselback gets hurt at some point as well. Also, I expect Duckett's role to expand in Knapp's offense and there's no way JJ is getting double-digit TD's.

I drafted Jamaal Charles for my team. I thikn if the Chiefs have more of a spread offense he will see a lot of snaps even if LJ is healthy. I would look at LJ if you can get him for cheap, but make sure not to overvalue him.

I would rank Tomlinson as a fringe top 10 RB behind AP, MJD, Forte, S-Jax, Chris Johnson, Slaton, Gore and in the same are as Barber, Turner, Jacobs, Deangelo Williams, Portis, and Westbrook.

Re: Risky RBs, what do you think?
by Blotzphoto :: Sat, 08/22/2009 - 6:08pm

Watch out for overvaluing the vs. Cincinnati matchup. The Bengals defense is gonna surprise people this year.

Re: Risky RBs, what do you think?
by dutchtreat :: Thu, 08/27/2009 - 10:30am

How did Saturday go? Did you grab any of the above?

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