Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

11 Jul 2012

SAFER pick in .5 PPR: Welker or Roddy White?

I love them both but can't decide.

Posted by: frievalt on 11 Jul 2012

3 replies , Last at 26 Aug 2012, 7:12pm by socctty

Re: SAFER pick in .5 PPR: Welker or Roddy White?
by AL (not verified) :: Thu, 07/12/2012 - 11:44am

Interesting question. I have them both projected as borderline WR1/high-end WR2 with the following stats:

White: 149 TGTS/85 REC (57% catch rate)/1,088 (12.8 ypr)/8 TDs = 156.8 fp/199.3 ppr (.5)
Welker: 144 TGTS/104 REC (72% catch rate)/1,166 (11.2 ypr)/7 TDs = 158.6 fp/210.6 ppr (.5)

I don't see a clear winner. I see both marginally regressing, White due to Atlanta now having a legit counterpart with whom he'll have to share and Welker due to there being another talented mouth to feed in Brandon Lloyd, who apparently will have a decent-sized role in the game plan. Looking over those numbers, I have to admit I see a greater probability of White exceeding his projection (it would only take a return to his '10 65% catch rate, plus a TD here or there) than Welker continuing his sudden career resurgence as a vertical threat (last year he posted a 15.9 ypr versus his normal 11-12 ypr range; that feels anomalous). This is very close, but I don't think there's a wrong answer. Good luck!

Re: SAFER pick in .5 PPR: Welker or Roddy White?
by J. Winn (not verified) :: Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:21pm

This is a tough pick. I would go with White personally. He has much more room for improvement, while Welker will definitely regress from last year. Brady has several new weapons this year and I don't think Welker is a part of the Patriot's plan long term. They may start using Hernandez or one of their many other receivers more in Welker's role. Meanwhile, White will draw less coverage than he did last year and Matt Ryan has improved every season.

Either way you can't go wrong though. They're both pretty safe in PPR.

Re: SAFER pick in .5 PPR: Welker or Roddy White?
by socctty :: Sun, 08/26/2012 - 7:12pm

I faced this choice and managed to snag both guys. I chose Welker at 29 and White at 32, but I knew I was going to be going WR/WR and I already had Fitzgerald (which I regret picking because I thought Jimmy Graham would slide to me, but I digress).

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