Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

293
Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Gus (not verified) :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 11:35pm

Holy crap, Kaepernick is fast.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by RickD :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 11:39pm

I'd be very interested to see CK's DYAR for this game. His rushing number is probably a playoff record for QB. Probably not close.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Sid :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 11:47pm

wild card weekend was very low scoring but we're getting a ton of scoring today

Packers defense is helpless.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 12:15am

Given that Kaepernick has essentially declared himself a RB, I would hit him every play. Even when he hands off. Several times, he has handed off and run parallel to the LOS. I think these lull the defense. I don't think SF would keep doing it if Kaepernick kept getting hits.

I haven't watched RGIII or Wilson much. But I do think that is the defense that will stop the read/option.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by jonnyblazin :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 12:22am

I remember the Ravens tried this vs. RG3, they basically sent the end directly at the QB on every play and forced a handoff to the RB on every read option. It was effective in limiting RG3 rushing, but then the defense was playing a man short on all running plays so A. Morris had a lot of solid runs. RG3 did later get hurt in the game, but it was on a scramble so it didn't have anything to do with the strategy.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 12:31am

Which kind of proves my point. Good QBs are easily the most valuable players on either team. If your QB gets hurt every few games, is it worth it to essentially play a Wildcat on several plays with a real QB vs a RB like Ronnie Brown?

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Will Allen :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 2:43am

How the hell does a guy run for 200 yards, with the hardest hit on him being somebody belching in his general vicinity? What a disgrace.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Gus (not verified) :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 11:50pm

Oh no, Frank Gore is pile-driving. The GB defense is gassed.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Nevic (not verified) :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 12:03am

Wow, how timid is McCarthy?! Punting on 4th and 4 from midfield down 14 when your defense has shown no ability to stop the 49ers. If I were TMQ I would write game over in my notebook now.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by MehlLageman56 (not verified) :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 3:04am

TMQ better have written that. McCarthy lost his nerve there. I'm surprised Rogers didn't just not leave the field.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by BJR :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 12:06am

What are the Green Bay coaching staff thinking of punting 14 points down at this stage? They haven't done a thing to slow down the Niners offence all night. And here they are marching down the field again. Mind boggling stuff.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Nevis (not verified) :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 12:16am

Coaching lost GB this game. McCarthy too tommie on 4th downs (punting on 4th and 4, kicking a FG on 4th and 1) and Dom Capers in the 1st half not planning for Kaepernick. Letting him run silly, not spying him, blitzing with man coverage so Kaepernick can run.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by justanothersteve :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 12:35am

Yup. I don't expect Seattle to be this easy defensively.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by snik75 (not verified) :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 12:31am

Yeah, the punt from midfield was when I started tuning out. That whole drive should have been 4 down territory, certainly at the 50. But really, San Fran just plain looked like the better team tonight.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Karl Cuba :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 12:42am

So happy, for a couple of days, then the dread will return.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Nevic (not verified) :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 1:00am

I guess that game pretty much proved that the 49ers are better with Kaepernick than Smith at QB. That is a VERY different game if Smith is still QB!

314
Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Will Allen :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 2:34am

The #5 and #8 defense, by DVOA, just stunk today. I'd like to say it was the result of superlative offensive play, but I'd be lying. Yeah, the Niners o-line played very well, and the Ravens o-line played pretty well (Stubbleface must have watched that game from his farm, and shouted, "Why the F**K didn't I have that Bryant Mckinnie in 2010!!"), but the back ends of both those defenses were just awful, awful, awful. I don't think I've ever seen a more unathletic play by a d-back in the playoffs that what we saw on the last Ravens touchdown, and the only reason I'd cut any slack to the Packers D players is due to the reasonable possibility that Dom Capers was just schooled completely; it's hard to tell if you haven't been sitting in on meetings all week, but it sure looked like it. Did these dolts actually think that playing Joe Webb, and a couple cans of corn at receiver, was preparation for their opponent tonight? Sheesh, I wanted the Niners to win, because I've kinda' been rooting for them for 3-4 years now, but that was just an awful effort by a very unsound Packers defense.

I feel for the Broncos fans. That loss was a combination of the Vikings post season heartbreakers in '75, '98, and '09.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Ender (not verified) :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 2:37am

I will come right out and say the 49ers won this game outright and just beat the Packers down. But I can't help but comment on the 22 holding calls that weren't called on them. I don't think I've ever seen a team hold so often in a game.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by DiscountDoubleFail (not verified) :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 4:57am

22 holding calls? Did you re-watch and count them all? I mean I know I saw the missed holding call on Ginn in the 2nd quarter and maybe one or two on some o-lineman but 22 holding calls? Seriously?

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Karl Cuba :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 7:51am

Are we talking offensive or defensive holding? I ask because I didn't see it, though would happily admit to being less than fully capable of spotting it due to the deleterious effects of ale (duchy originals offends my anti monarchist sentiments but it was gold and ruby ale, pretty much the 49er colours and just too tasty)

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Aloysius Mephis... :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 2:42pm

Offensive holding has to be so blatant these days to get called, I'm not sure how you complain that a team is getting away with it, unless it's obvious takedowns of defensive players. I only spotted one blatant takedown (of Clay Matthews), and the Niners got called for it. And anyway, it's not like the Packers were getting flagged for holding left and right, so if the officials genuinely were unwilling to call holding the Packers should have taken advantage of that as well.

The ale sounds great, and I'm actually somewhat sympathetic to the idea of a monarchy. Will have to check it out.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by OKapMyKap (not verified) :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 5:05am

Packers got outplayed. Look at whatever stats you want, 49ers were the better team. Time of Posession was almost 2-1 in favor of Niners. QBR was 94% to 68%. Kaepernick broke the NFL record for rushing yards for a qb. He was averaging like 11 per rush and 15 per pass at one point. This offense is potent and the Packers defense was weak.

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Re: Saturday Divisional Round Open Thread
by Michael LaRocca (not verified) :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 9:26am

As I watched the first of two great games from my home in Charlotte, I saw that John Fox still hasn't grown a pair.

Also, I only tweeted once about Tebow Time.

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