Talk amongst yourselves
Click here to buy PDF version
Need help on FanDuel or DraftKings? Purchase a subscription from the website that specializes in daily fantasy.
04 Jan 2014
This thread is to discuss Kansas City at Indianapolis and New Orleans at Philadelphia.
Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 04 Jan 2014
121 replies , Last at
05 Jan 2014, 9:05pm by
The wise guys have changed the line to a 2-point KC favorite. Is that because of the LBers playing for KC today, or is the fix in?!
That's not good.
Pretty catastrophic if Charles is seriously hurt. It looked like a glancing blow to the head. Hopefully he is okay and this doesn't turn into the Knile Davis show.
That's rotten luck for Charles.
Rotten luck for everyone but the Colts defense. Hate to see injuries to anyone, but at least no one can question Charles' toughness as the new rules force him to sit.
Agreed. Even as a Colts fan I want everyone healthy. Don't want to see any playoffs without Charles, Luck, Brady, Manning, Wilson ...
Well, that might doom the Chiefs... Looking at the replay, that certainly looked like a concussion.
Spam, really?? The above is triggering the spam filter... *sigh*
Oh geez. I have danish announcers - so no sideline reporting... Is it a concussion?
Said they went through concussion protocol and then took him to the locker room.
Ugh. Defense not stopping anything.
Who are these announcers?
Mayock is doing color. Don't remember who the play-by-play guy is, but it's not his partner from Thursdays on the NFL network.
Dan Hicks did play by play. He does a lot of golf for NBC, as foil for Johnny Miller.
Would love to get a FG stop here.
Impressive opening drive by the Chiefs here. 14 plays 82 yards 7 points.
And 7 first downs. Can't really ask for much better than that. Methodical and effective.
So... Would the Chiefs give back the seven points if they could have Charles back?
That was a Madden-like answering drive. Luck made it look very easy.
Could be a high-scoring game. I just hope Pep Hamilton doesn't get conservative with play calling or look for "balance." Be the Pats for once--keep doing the same thing until they stop you. In this case, keep throwing.
Purds, Three hours later, well, my answers are Yes, don't worry, and yes. (Actually I loved the runs in the final drive--maybe three for about 20 yards. That was sweet and hopefully ate clock, brought the D up a bit, slowed down pass rushers, etc.
Worked like a charm.
I still don't know how this team wins games. I really don't. How can the defense be that bad for so long, and then make multiple plays? Maybe just taking out Toler, who wasn't ready to play, made the difference. Obviously the Charles injury hurt KC, but they were cruising without him in the first half. For a guy who watches this team non stop, I am amazed by how little I can predict about them.
Trent-pocalypse now. I need to get the filter to accept my excellent comment so I will add meaningless sentences. How I do it?
Indy has run 11 plays. Kansas City has run 8 goal-to-go plays. This could get ugly fast.
It already is ugly.
It won't stay this ugly. Alex Smith is not likely to throw another 60+ yard pass and Trent Richardson is unlikely to touch the ball again (hopefully?). That could go a long way toward keeping it from getting completely out of control.
They could start with a defensive stop. The Indy defense is AWOL right now.
It seems like Andy Reid wants to throw every down, and the Colts line is playing the pass all the way, but no one is keeping Smith contained. He's extended a couple drives just by stepping up in the pocket as his line lets Mathis & co. blow past them.
I think he's channeling his inner Fran Tarkenton.
@ Mr. Steak, Well, you were right on one count (TR not touching the ball) but not Smith's passing (or Indy blowing coverages), and as for out of control, after this game, who can really say what is out of control anymore? Frank Reich maybe.
Go for it
Beautiful call on 4th down.
But it's only worth 3.
Sneaky athletic? yikes.
Yeah, that one's cringeworthy. I think someone said that about Luck in the pregame too.
Brian Burkes' model just crossed 90 percent Chiefs win. After adjusting for HFA.
Seems about right
I do think Luck is one guy who could claw this back, but dang this game.
Colts have a habit of digging their way out from 2nd half deficits.
Given they're likely about to go down four scores, and haven't stopped KC all game, I'd say yes. Indy might get four scores in the 2nd half, but they won't stop KC from getting more.
Reminds me of Ty Law picking off Peyton in the playoffs (even after he went to the Chiefs).
My goodness. This one is over.
Tempting the football gods? We're barely into the 2nd half here.
The score is 38-10, so if the game is not over, we are about to witness something historic. In the next 28 minutes and change the Colts will have to score 4 TDs and hold KC scoreless. Remember: the Chiefs have not even punted yet. It seems safe to say the game is probably over.
A 21-point lead with 27 minutes left? With Andrew Luck leading the possible comeback?
Not even close to a big enough lead with that much time left.
Of course, the Colts' defense would have to actually make a stop at some point...
...and a fumble recover would qualify.
Yes, a comeback would be epic. But the Bills came back from a bigger deficit to beat the Oilers in January 1993.
A TD here and the Colts have both plenty of time and "momentum".
So once in 20 years? When anyone says "game over" they dont actually mean game OVER.
Forgive me. I'm from a math background. We're always literal.
The larger point here is that the Colts have just scored two TDs in quick succession, and have plenty of time left to score twice more. And of all the teams in the playoffs, they are the one that has shown this pattern of falling behind and winning via the late-game comeback.
So am I actually - 10th semester math student at University of Aalborg.
Yes they have scored twice very quickly but even the biggest Colts fan must admit that that was a fairly unlikely turn of events. AND! They have to it again! Oh and stop the Chiefs for a half.
And then they'd be tied...
RickD, If I'm not mistaken, you're a Pats fan, right? Is there an opponent you'd prefer next week? Colts scored a LOT on a good D (and allowed a ton of pts to an average+ offense missing its best player). SD is likely to be similar. CIN has a very good D and an O that CAN be but is not always.....
I don't think anybody would be excessively worried about Indy at the next level, but I also don't think the Colts have much to worry about. They're playing with house money now, overcame a godawful ton of blown coverages and turnovers.... A little like the Ravens at this point last year--not as commanding a won, but a very commanding second half.
Yes, I'm a Pats fan. I haven't thought much about whether I'd prefer the Bengals or the Colts. I would prefer the Chargers, but that's not an option. I think I'd rather have Luck go to Denver and deal with the Bengals. Yes, the Pats lost at Cincy, but that was before the Bengals had an injury bug strike down their best defenders, and it was with a very thin WR corps (not that it's much better now, but it's a little better).
Andy Dalton doesn't scare me at all. Luck is quite a different animal. I'm not sure that the Pats could slow him down more than the Chiefs did in the second half.
So, in conclusion, I'd rather deal with the team with the weaker QB. Let Luck and Manning go into the Thunderdome so the Pats only would have to beat one of the two.
And you get to watch us Colts fans die a little no matter who wins the game. You bastard!
Not sure about Dalton--he sucked last week and they pulled his butt off the coals, but he's capable of going on a Flacco style run, and AJ Green makes that even more dangerous than having guys like Jacoby Jones, Boldin, or Smith, who the Flaccster had last year.
Oh yes, the flip side with the Bengals is AJ Green. But on the whole I think the Colts' passing game is more dangerous.
The very good thing from my perspective is that the Broncos are going to face one of the teams that beat them this season. FWIW, I will be (obviously) cheering for whoever the road team is in Denver (this even holds if the Pats lose next Saturday).
As a Colts fan living in New England, I desperately hope the Chargers win so the Colts can play NE. Win or lose, those games are fun here.
Where would you put the odds then? 20:1?
Well this quick score changes things ofc
Well with the fumble something like 10:1 seems closer. Still need the Chiefs to turn it over/ not score on a couple more drives to make it feasible.
Absolutely, but when RickD made his comment it was -28. Two insanely unlikely events have happened since then.
Even with the fumble Burke's WP is 96%.
Even with the second straight TD, Burke has KC winning at 95%.
What is his percentage that Smith lasts the whole game if he keeps running into tacklers like that?
Yeah. I kept telling my sons that he's making himself a RB and the defenders have to punish him for that. Slide once in a while jerkwad.
What's so unlikely? A fumble? Fumbles happen all the time in the NFL. A quick TD drive? That's well within the realm of likelihood for the Colts.
For late dinner I'll have a big can of shut-up with a side of crow.
Watching the play calling of KC offense versus Indy defense lets me know: Andy Reid > Chuck Pagano.
Not sure that turnover is going to stand. If they go by video needing to be conclusive to change, then maybe it stands, but I am not sure that should be a Colts possession. I was screaming at the TV for them to just get the ball instead of trying to run with it. Not sure they got it.
KC is going to be so injured they won't even pose a threat to NE next week.
Or would they play Denver?
If San Diego Wins, then San Diego plays Denver. If the Bengals win, the Bengals automatically play the Patriots.
Right. I forget that records don't count, division winners are higher seeds. Actually, KC may not have as good of a record now.
Right on both counts, just not the way you were thinking.
Damn, lots of turnovers today. Can't blame Luck for that one. Well, Mayock just did, so I guess you can.
Down by 14 and use a timeout to ice a kicker?
If they had 12 men on the field, it was a good timeout.
They did. Costly mistake having to use that timeout to avoid a penalty
It was 3rd and 6 so it still would have been 4th down and Reid is pretty conservative on 4th downs so it probably would have made no difference.
Yeah, but I wouldn't have wanted to give KC a 4th and 1 there. With a large-ish lead, the Chiefs might well have gone for it.
Not likely. KC has 11 4th down attempts all year, no way does Andy Reid have the spine to go for it there rather than turn a 2 score lead into a 3 score lead.
Chiefs somehow intercept Luck even though the Colts had all the momentum.
Icing the kicker in the third quarter?? Seriously??
Are they trying to ice Succop? That seems like a horrible use of a timeout if they are trying to win.
I'm getting tired of all the talk about momentum. They are talking about it like whoever made the last good play has all of the momentum. It's completely pointless.
I find it easier to deal with by inserting inaudible scare quotes ("momentum") whenever I hear the word.
Apparently "defense" today is pretty much turnover or nothing. Each offense has only punted once.
is Flowers out? Someone needs to cover Hilton
He hit his head on one of the TDs.
Yeah. Three chiefs out with concussions, Charles, Avery and FLowers.
Extremely heady play by Andrew Luck!
Not the first time the Colts have gotten a lucky fumble recovery near the goalline for a TD during a playoff comeback. *cough* 2006 *cough*
But he was fortunate that the ball bounced to him, and they got a good break that he was able to dive and reach the end zone. Plus they had a positive break go their way, in that he stretched out without himself losing it. The god sure were smiling on the Colts.
Yes, as many of us have said on the Twitter feed, it's an example of Fumble Luck.
If Luck turns into a long-term success story, we will see that play over, and over, and over. Like watching Elway twist in the air at the goal line in here Super Bowl.
That was one of the most amazing plays I have seen. There was some luck involved (small L) but quite a bit of capital-L Luck.
Demps is specializing in taking kickoffs out of the end zone to not reach the 20.
Colts' win % has climbed to nearly 30%.
Wow, now KC wasting timeouts. Good to see Andy Reid still remembers how to waste 'em.
Wow. That timeout coming out of the two minute warning was a master's performance in wastefulness.
The Chiefs are going to end up with last week's lineup by the end of this, and not by choice.
Who calls a timeout coming out of the 2-minute warning?
Are you kidding me? How do you not get the other foot in there? There are probably 60 recievers in the league that make that play.
I think that you have answered your question right there. 60 WRs, 32 teams. Less than 2 per team, even assuming even distribution.
But these are the 12 playoff teams.
Good thing we don't choose playoff teams by who has the best receivers then. If that were the case the Patriots, Chiefs and Panthers certainly would not be in.
Playoff teams are more likely than non-playoff teams to have receivers among the "top 60". And certainly the Patriots, Chiefs, and Panthers all have at least one receiver in that category. (I would have thought Bowe would be the Chiefs' representative.)
Bowe has a pretty sad catch rate. 3 years ago I would agree with you but now? I don't know. The Patriots without Gronkowski don't really have anyone who is all that skilled on their own. I watch them every week and I wouldn't trust any of them to make a tip-toe sideline grab.
Since we're between games... anyone know where we can find a link to our playoff challenge teams? I can't find the page that was up before in the XPs.
It was good and bad for my team. The good - T.Y. Hilton, the bad Jamaal Charles.
Same two I have. I'm guessing a lot of people have those two.
I cannot imagine taking Bowe over Charles, though in retrospect that was the right choice. And if you don't take Luck, Hilton is the best choice for your Colt.
Great... but is there a link to our teams? I really can't remember who I had... I at least debated taking Bowe, since I wanted RBs from teams I thought would last longer.
I'd also like to be able to refresh my memory on who I picked. But if the vague memories I have are accurate, my team is already severely boned.
So because a lineman drops his towell, it's ok to commit delay of game? What the heck happened there?
This second game is hard to stay focused on after the whirlwind that was Chiefs-Colts.
It's proving to be a worthy successor.
A moment of silence in honor of the fact that we had two close games and no ref calls or non calls to complain about. I would never have guessed that based on the regular season.
Obviously that non-call on the delay of game due to the towel was bogus and made everything after that suspect, ruining the game!
Don't jinx us. Jeff Triplette today in Cincinnati.
At what temperature does it become dangerous to play or attend a football game?
High or low temperature? Just kidding. Numerous players got frostbite in the "Ice Bowl". Ray Nitschke's toenails fell off as a result and an elderly man died of exposure in the stands. It's not going to be that bad, but hypothermia and frostbite is certainly a problem for spectators if they are not dressed properly.
There's an underground heating system for the field, so it won't quite feel like playing on concrete. Sideline heaters are much better that they were in 1967. Players are not going to be comfortable. The biggest issue will be fumbles. Is there an over under prop bet for that?
If it's windy and that cold, when the wind comes straight at you, your eyes water, you instinctively want to close them. A problem when it comes to the passing game.
It's only a few hours.
I read a windchill warning for Wisconsin that described frostbite on exposed skin within 5-10 minutes...
Yes, but no player won't be without exposure to a sideline heater. And that windchill warning was under the older forecast which was about 10° colder.
© Football Outsiders, Inc. // Site powered by Stein-Wein // Partner of USA TODAY Sports Digital Properties