Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

04 Sep 2009

Second Pick- with a twist

I have the second pick in my draft. I know the consensus seems to be to take whichever of AP or MJD isn't taken with the first pick. (10 team league- not a PPR league)
The twist is that due to some quirky league rules I get to keep one player from last year who I drafted in the last few rounds, and I'm lucky enough to have Steve Slaton.
Fellow Football Outsiders, I ask you: what general strategies would you bring into the draft? Is it MJD/AP with the first pick, then try to find WR's who slip through with the second and third picks? Should I startle my league by grabbing Drew Brees in the first round and take a Frank Gore type in the second round?
Thanks in advance!

Posted by: mattlevine1@gmail.com on 04 Sep 2009

10 replies , Last at 08 Sep 2009, 9:57am by mattlevine1@gmail.com

1
Re: Second Pick- with a twist
by shawn.aparo :: Fri, 09/04/2009 - 8:56pm

If you are really intent on drafting a QB early, I think you would be a lot better off taking MJD/Forte in the first round, a wide receiver like jennings or wayne in the second and rivers in the third. That way the core of your team would be:

Rivers
MJD/Forte
Slaton
Wayne/Jennings

which I like a lot more than

Brees
Gore
Slaton
R. White/M. Coleston/S. Smith

2
Re: Second Pick- with a twist
by Dan :: Sat, 09/05/2009 - 3:02am

Stick with AP/MJD. The gap between them and the field is just too big, and there's nothing wrong with having two stud RBs. Plus, even the Gore-level backs could be gone by your pick at the end of the 2nd (especially if some of the other top RBs are also keepers). You may still be able to get a top 3 QB in the 2nd, but if not then I'd take two top 10 WRs at the 2/3 turn. So plan A would be 1) MJD/AP, 2) Brees/Brady/Manning, 3) WR, and plan B would be 1) MJD/AP, 2) WR, 3) WR.

3
Re: Second Pick- with a twist
by joshuascottrose :: Sat, 09/05/2009 - 3:42am

Why the emphasis on a Top 10 WR, when there are a clump of other similar WR's around them, rather than going premium TE there?

4
Re: Second Pick- with a twist
by Ten Drink Drunk :: Sat, 09/05/2009 - 1:24pm

Because you'll probably be able to pick up a decent TE in later rounds whereas the WR position will thin out quickly. Witten, Gonzalez, and Gates all went in the 5th in my draft.

5
Re: Second Pick- with a twist
by tally :: Sat, 09/05/2009 - 1:26pm

According to KUBIAK, that's exactly the reverse. The difference between WRs after the first 3-5 is not very big. It doesn't thin out at all but is rather homogeneous.

6
Re: Second Pick- with a twist
by Dan :: Sat, 09/05/2009 - 2:09pm

1) because you need 3 WRs,
2) because there's a good chance of getting Gates or Witten at the 4/5 turn - they're as likely to be there as KUBIAK's 2 favorite WRs are,
3) because I disagree with KUBIAK and think that there is a dropoff after the top 10 or so WRs (my views are usually somewhere between KUBIAK and conventional wisdom, which means that I end up with a lot of KUBIAK favorites but I'm not willing to reach very far above ADP for them),
4) because it leaves your options open - at the 4/5 turn you can take the best value at RB, TE, or WR (or QB, if you went WR-WR at 2/3)

7
Re: Second Pick- with a twist
by tally :: Sat, 09/05/2009 - 6:46pm

Did I miss something? Who was suggesting taking a TE at round 2/3? You certainly don't take a player that far ahead of ADP.

8
Re: Second Pick- with a twist
by mattlevine1@gma... :: Mon, 09/07/2009 - 11:13pm

Thanks for the tips. I went with what you all thought- took MJD in the first round then P Manning in the second. Then was able to take Colston in the third. Not sure how great my draft was from there, but I do think I started right. Thanks again for the help.

9
Re: Second Pick- with a twist
by Dan :: Mon, 09/07/2009 - 11:51pm

Sounds like a good start. I'd be curious to see the rest of your team.

10
Re: Second Pick- with a twist
by mattlevine1@gma... :: Tue, 09/08/2009 - 9:57am

Dan- here's how it ended up. I was able to take a couple of kubiak faves later than I would have thought.
QB Peyton Manning
Matt Hasselbeck
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
Steve Slaton
LeSean McCoy
Reggie Bush
Rashard Mendenhall
WR Marques Colston
Anthony Gonzalez
Torry Holt
Jeremy Maclin
Santonio Holmes
Ted Ginn Jr.
TE Kellen Winslow
D Bears
K Adam Vinatieri

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